Corn Slips Lower into Wednesday’s Close

Corn futures closed Wednesday with 2 to 3 cent losses across front months, pushing the national average cash price down to $3.82 1/4. This decline occurred as weekly ethanol production dropped to 1.055 million bpd, though ethanol stocks also decreased and refiner inputs rose. Meanwhile, USDA's Export Sales report is estimated to show 0.5-1.9 MMT in 2025/26 corn sales, and Canadian corn production for the year increased 1% to 15.5 MMT.

Analysis

Corn futures experienced modest declines, with front-month contracts closing down 2 to 3 cents, pushing the national average cash price to $3.82 ¼. The negative price action appears driven by a mix of supply and demand signals. On the bearish side, the weekly EIA report showed a 50,000 barrel per day drop in ethanol production to 1.055 million bpd, and Stats Canada reported a 1% year-over-year increase in corn production to 15.5 MMT. However, several data points offered underlying support, preventing a steeper sell-off. The same EIA report indicated that ethanol stocks fell by 235,000 barrels and refiner inputs, a proxy for demand, increased by 42,000 bpd. Furthermore, the weekly ethanol production figure, despite its weekly decline, remains 6,000 bpd higher than the same week last year. On the trade front, a South Korean importer's purchase of 65,000 MT provided a small, direct confirmation of demand, while the market anticipates the USDA’s Export Sales report, which is estimated to show 0.5 to 1.9 MMT in new 2025/26 sales, indicating significant uncertainty in forward-looking export demand.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should recognize the mixed signals in the current corn market, where bearish weekly production data is being counteracted by bullish inventory and refiner demand, suggesting caution against oversized directional bets.
• Monitor the upcoming USDA Export Sales report closely, as a figure towards the high end of the 0.5 to 1.9 MMT estimate for 2025/26 sales could provide a significant bullish catalyst, while a low-end reading may confirm the recent price weakness.
• For those with exposure to corn-related instruments like the Teucrium Corn Fund (CORN), it is critical to track the relationship between corn prices and the energy sector, as the conflicting ethanol production and stock figures highlight its role as a key driver of volatility.