These 2 Construction Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks promotes its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool, which forecasts earnings beats by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better has predicted positive earnings surprises 70% of the time, yielding an average annual return of 28.3% over a decade. The article specifically identifies Martin Marietta (MLM) with a +1.29% ESP and Quanta Services (PWR) with a +0.54% ESP as construction stocks with potential for earnings beats in their upcoming October 2025 reports, suggesting these could be profitable opportunities.

Analysis

Two construction sector stocks, Martin Marietta (MLM) and Quanta Services (PWR), have been identified as having a heightened probability of beating upcoming quarterly earnings estimates based on the Zacks Earnings Expected Surprise Prediction (ESP) model. This model quantifies the difference between the most recent analyst projections and the broader consensus. For Martin Marietta, the Most Accurate Estimate of $6.70 per share is 1.29% higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $6.62, yielding a positive ESP ahead of its October 29, 2025 report. Similarly, Quanta Services shows a +0.54% ESP, with a Most Accurate Estimate of $3.26 versus a consensus of $3.24 for its report on October 30, 2025. While both stocks currently hold a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line market performance, the article highlights that a positive ESP combined with this rank has historically predicted a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, with a 10-year backtest showing average annual returns of 28.3% for this strategy. The analysis presents a quantitative, event-driven catalyst for both companies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider initiating tactical long positions in Martin Marietta (MLM) and Quanta Services (PWR) ahead of their late October 2025 earnings reports to potentially capture upside from a positive earnings surprise.
• Given its higher ESP of +1.29% compared to PWR's +0.54%, MLM presents a quantitatively stronger signal for an earnings beat, which could warrant a larger tactical allocation between the two.
• Traders should monitor these stocks closely around their respective report dates, as the investment thesis is predicated on a short-term, event-driven catalyst rather than a change in their fundamental 'Hold' rating.