First Camp Group Year End Report 2025

First Camp reported Q4 revenue of SEK 268.1m (118.8) and full-year revenue of SEK 1,580.8m (1,266.9), with pro forma revenue growth of 10% in Q4 and 6% for the year; pro forma adjusted EBITDA was SEK 13.0m in Q4 and SEK 591.0m for the year. Full-year EBIT improved to SEK 253.3m (148.7) and operating cash flow turned positive for the year at SEK 140.3m despite a Q4 negative cash flow of SEK -149.4m. The company completed extensive M&A (15 destinations acquired in Q4, 17 during the year plus shareholder contributions) adding roughly SEK 680–700m of annual revenue and executed a bond issuer change affecting EUR 72m of senior secured bonds, underlining inorganic expansion into the DACH region and winter-tourism segments and materially increasing scale and profitability prospects.

Analysis

Market structure: First Camp’s roll-up (17+2 destinations in 2025 adding ~SEK 700m revenue) accelerates consolidation in European camping/winter-tourism, favoring asset-heavy platform owners and large distributors while squeezing independent operators and small seasonal sites. Pro forma revenue +10% in Q4 and FY pro forma EBITDA ~SEK 591m signal demand resilience for outdoor and winter travel; pricing power should improve in core markets (Nordics, DACH) where scale enables dynamic pricing and cross-sell of year-round experiences.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are integration failure, interest-rate driven refinancing stress and seasonality shocks (mild winter or travel restrictions) that could turn recent operating cash (-SEK 149m Q4) into covenant breaches. Immediate (days) risk: bond market repricing after issuer change of EUR 72m; short-term (weeks/months): Q1 bookings and winter-peak conversion; long-term (12–36 months): successful cross-border integration and leverage reduction. Hidden dependency: liquidity hinges on credit markets and working-capital from newly acquired assets.

Trade implications: Credit-first trade — buy First Camp senior secured bonds or similar secured paper if secondary price <95 or yield-to-maturity >7% (risk/reward favorable), with target price 105 over 18–24 months. Equity/relative-value: establish 1–3% long in Booking Holdings (BKNG) or Accor (AC.PA) and a 1% short in asset-heavy European tour operator TUI.DE to prefer asset-light distribution; use 6–9 month call spreads on BKNG (buy 1: sell 1) to lever upside with defined risk. Rotate portfolio +3% overweight into travel & leisure ETFs (XLY or Europe travel peers) and underweight airlines/airports for next 6–12 months.

Contrarian angles: The market may underprice credit risk — Q4 operating cash outflow (-SEK 149m) versus FY +SEK 140m masks volatility; consensus could overestimate synergies and integration speed. Historical parallels (hotel/camp roll-ups) show 12–24 month cash drag before margin improvement — if net debt/EBITDA rises above ~4.5x, expect equity dilution or distressed asset sales, so hedge credit exposure with CDS or buy protective puts on listed peers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider establishing a 2–4% portfolio position in First Camp senior secured debt or similar secured notes (EUR-denominated) if secondary price <95 or YTM >7%; target exit at price 105 within 18–24 months, stop-loss sell if price <85 or issuer reports covenant breach.
• Open a 1–3% long equity position in asset-light travel/distribution: Booking Holdings (BKNG) or Accor (AC.PA), and finance with a 1% short in TUI.DE (tour operator) — thesis: platform/scale outperforms asset-heavy operators over 12 months. Use stop-loss 15% and take-profit +25%.
• Implement a 6–9 month options strategy: buy a call spread on BKNG (delta-equivalent long) sized 0.5–1% portfolio risk to capture re-rating; concurrently buy protective puts on TUI.DE expiring 6–9 months if net debt/EBITDA for First Camp or peers exceeds 4.5x on next reported quarter.
• Monitor three catalysts over next 60 days and act: (1) Q1 booking curves and winter occupancy trends (sell risk if occupancy down >10% YoY), (2) bond covenant tests and any liquidity statements related to EUR 72m bonds (sell bonds if issuer signals waiver/forbearance), (3) trailing 12‑month net debt/EBITDA for First Camp — reduce exposure if >4.5x.