Britney Spears sells her entire music catalog to Primary Wave: reports

Britney Spears has reportedly sold her entire music catalog to music investment firm Primary Wave, a deal confirmed to The Hollywood Reporter and dated December 30, 2025. The sale includes rights to major hits such as “...Baby One More Time,” “Oops!... I Did It Again!” and “Gimme More,” and TMZ sources characterize it as a landmark transaction potentially in the ballpark of Justin Bieber’s roughly $200 million catalog sale to Hipgnosis. Representatives did not comment; the transaction shifts future royalty streams into upfront capital and expands Primary Wave’s owned catalog assets.

Analysis

Market structure: This transaction further validates the high-end music-catalog market and sets a $150–250m benchmark for A‑list full catalogs; winners are catalog aggregators/royalty managers (public: SONG, RHM) and private buyers able to finance at <6% real rates, while legacy labels (WMG, SONY, UMG) see competitive pressure on future licensing margins. Expect pricing power concentrated in superstar IP, driving M&A activity and further yield compression to ~4–6% on top-tier catalogs over the next 12–24 months.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are legal challenges to rights transfers, changes to royalty formulas or tax treatment, and a rapid re-pricing if streaming growth slows; these could hit valuations by 20–50% in stressed scenarios. Short-term (days–weeks) price moves will be rumor-driven; medium-term (3–12 months) fundamentals hinge on reported deal size and monetization assumptions; long-term (2–5 years) returns depend on streaming adoption and licensor renegotiations.

Trade implications: Direct public plays: favor owners of music royalties and royalty-asset ETFs; SONG (LSE: SONG) and Round Hill (LSE: RHM) should benefit from validation while WMG (NASDAQ: WMG) and SONY (NYSE: SONY) face relative margin pressure. Use 6–12 month call spreads on SONG/RHM and consider pair trades (long SONG, short WMG) sized 0.5–2% of portfolio with 15% stop-loss and 25–40% upside targets.

Contrarian angles: Consensus treats catalogs as durable cashflows, but rising prices imply lower future IRRs — if new deals routinely price >$200m, expect investor exits and secondary supply that could depress near-term multiples by 10–30%. Historical parallel: the post‑2018 catalog froth (Hipgnosis cycle) ended in painful mark-downs; monitor cap rates—if implied yield <4%, reduce exposure aggressively within 30–90 days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1–2% net long position in music-royalty public plays (primary: SONG on LSE, secondary: RHM on LSE) within 2–6 weeks; set a 15% stop-loss and target +30% within 6–12 months, backed by continued catalog M&A and streaming growth.
• Initiate a pair trade: long 1% SONG / short 0.5% WMG (NASDAQ: WMG) to capture relative upside of pure-play royalty owners vs. traditional label margins; close if spread narrows by more than 10% or after 12 months.
• Buy 12-month call spreads (buy ATM, sell +20% strike) on SONG or RHM sized 0.5% of portfolio to capture upside with defined risk; roll or trim if implied cap rates fall under 4% or if reported catalog sale prices exceed $250m for non-superstar catalogs.
• If implied catalog cap rates compress below 5% across multiple transactions (monitor deal announcements over next 90 days), reduce aggregate exposure to music-IP strategies by 25–50% and rotate into adjacent content monetization businesses (LYV, live/ancillary revenue) with better cash yield.