Eli Lilly vs. Viking Therapeutics Stock: Which Is the Best Growth Opportunity, According to Wall Street?

Eli Lilly, a leader in the rapidly expanding weight loss drug market, reported that its Mounjaro and Zepbound products drove over half of its recent quarterly revenue, which surged 38% to over $15 billion, with an oral candidate, orforglipron, nearing regulatory submission. Concurrently, Viking Therapeutics is advancing its dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist VK2735 through late-stage trials with positive results, positioning it as a potential competitor or acquisition target in the same high-growth sector. While Wall Street projects a 10% upside for Lilly, it forecasts a significantly higher 179% gain for Viking, reflecting its substantial growth potential despite its pre-commercial status.

Analysis

The weight loss drug market is projected to expand significantly from $28 billion to $95 billion by 2030, according to Goldman Sachs Research, driving substantial growth for market leaders. Eli Lilly (LLY) demonstrated robust performance, with recent quarterly revenue climbing 38% to over $15 billion, primarily fueled by its weight loss portfolio, which constituted over half of its sales. Lilly has also effectively addressed prior supply shortages for Mounjaro and Zepbound through manufacturing investments and new product formats.

Lilly's future growth is further supported by its upcoming regulatory submission for orforglipron, an oral obesity candidate, expected this year. Concurrently, Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) is advancing VK2735, a dual GIP/GLP-1 agonist, through Phase 3 (injectable) and Phase 2 (oral) trials, with positive results positioning it as a potential future competitor. VKTX also holds appeal as a potential acquisition target due to its late-stage pipeline.

Wall Street analysts maintain a bullish outlook on both companies, with buy recommendations outweighing sells. While Eli Lilly is forecast for a 10% price increase to $891, Viking Therapeutics commands a significantly higher projected gain of 179% to over $92, reflecting its substantial growth potential. However, VKTX carries higher inherent risk given its pre-commercial status, contrasting with Lilly's established market presence.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider Eli Lilly (LLY) for exposure to the rapidly growing weight loss drug market, leveraging its established revenue streams and strong pipeline for a more conservative growth profile.
• Aggressive investors seeking higher potential returns may consider Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) given its late-stage pipeline, positive trial results, and potential as an acquisition target, despite its higher pre-commercial risk.
• Monitor regulatory progress for Viking's VK2735 and Eli Lilly's orforglipron, alongside any M&A developments in the weight loss drug sector, which could significantly impact VKTX's valuation.