Cantor Fitzgerald maintains Neutral rating on Shopify stock at $156

Shopify reported robust Q2 2025 revenue of $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations by 31% year-over-year, despite a slight miss on EPS at $0.27. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Neutral rating and $156 price target, acknowledging the stock's 89% annual return and stable cross-border transaction volumes, including those under de minimis exemptions for China. This indicates continued strong top-line growth for Shopify, though the minor EPS shortfall presents a nuanced earnings picture.

Analysis

Shopify's second-quarter 2025 performance presents a picture of robust top-line growth tempered by a minor shortfall in profitability. The company reported a significant 31% year-over-year revenue increase to $2.7 billion, comfortably beating analyst expectations of $2.54 billion. However, this impressive sales performance did not fully translate to the bottom line, with earnings per share of $0.27 falling slightly below the consensus estimate of $0.29. In a separate assessment, Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Neutral rating on the stock with a $156.00 price target, acknowledging the stock's substantial 89% return over the past year. The firm's analysis provided a key insight into a potential risk factor, noting that cross-border gross merchandise volume (GMV), which accounts for 15% of the total, has remained stable and unaffected by recent changes to de minimis exemption rules for shipments from China. This alleviates a specific regulatory concern for Shopify's international merchant base.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the company's strong 31% revenue growth against the slight EPS miss and the stock's significant 89% appreciation over the past year, a dynamic reflected in Cantor Fitzgerald's Neutral rating.
• The stability of cross-border GMV following regulatory changes is a positive indicator; monitoring this metric, which constitutes 15% of total GMV, is crucial for gauging the health of Shopify's international expansion.
• With a price target of $156 against a current price of $140.85, the Neutral rating suggests the stock may be fairly valued after its recent run, prompting consideration of holding current positions rather than initiating aggressive new buys.