Corn Ends the Midweek Session with Strength

Corn futures closed higher on Wednesday, gaining 1 to 3 ¼ cents, with the national average Cash Corn price also rising 3 ¾ cents to $3.82 1/4. This upward movement was supported by a near-record surge in ethanol production, which increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 1.112 million bpd, leading to a draw in ethanol stocks. Despite the ongoing government shutdown delaying USDA export sales reports, traders estimate significant corn sales of 0.8-2 MMT for the week ending October 16.

Analysis

Corn futures closed higher by 1 to 3 ¼ cents, with the national average cash corn price increasing 3 ¾ cents to $3.82 1/4, reflecting positive market momentum. This upward trend is significantly supported by robust demand from the ethanol sector.

Ethanol production surged by 38,000 barrels per day to a near-record 1.112 million bpd, leading to a substantial draw of 709,000 barrels in ethanol stocks. Despite a slight dip in refiner inputs, increased ethanol exports, up 22,000 bpd to 130,000 bpd, underscore strong industrial and international demand for corn-derived products.

The ongoing government shutdown has delayed USDA's weekly Export Sales report, yet traders estimate significant corn sales of 0.8-2 MMT for the week ending October 16, indicating persistent global demand. With only seven days remaining for harvest price discovery for crop insurance, the average December corn close at $4.19 provides a key benchmark for producers.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider the sustained bullish momentum in corn futures, driven by strong ethanol production and export demand.
• Monitor future EIA ethanol production and stock data, as well as the eventual release of USDA export sales reports, for continued demand indicators.
• Evaluate potential long positions or hedging strategies in corn, given the current price strength and the nearing completion of harvest price discovery for crop insurance.