Should You Buy Bitcoin While It's Under $100,000?

Bitcoin has tumbled to roughly $70,000, about 44% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000 and roughly 20% lower year-to-date in 2026, renewing discussion of its historical four-year boom-bust cycles (drops of 58% in 2014, 74% in 2018 and 64% in 2022). The piece argues the sell-off is a buying opportunity, noting Bitcoin’s fixed 21 million supply but flagging that ETFs and derivatives on Wall Street — futures, swaps and options — have increased leverage and could erode price discovery; nevertheless, the author and some high-profile investors maintain aggressive long-term price targets and recommend accumulating while under $100,000.

Analysis

Market structure: The immediate winners are exchanges, clearinghouses and fee-driven venues (Nasdaq/NDAQ) that monetize elevated derivatives turnover and volatility; market-makers and institutional liquidity providers capture widened spreads. Losers are leveraged retail longs, short-dated ETF/ETP arbitrageurs and small custodians; increased synthetic exposure can decouple spot from paper markets and amplify crashes via forced deleveraging. Supply/demand: On-chain supply remains capped at 21M, but effective marketable supply has been expanded by reuse via futures/options and ETF creation/redemption mechanics, implying higher gross notional outstanding and greater price sensitivity to flow shocks.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory shock (eg. U.S./EU restrictive rule within 6–12 months) or a margin spiral causing >60% drawdown (we assign a 10–20% conditional probability in next 12 months). Short-term (days/weeks) risks are liquidity squeezes and funding-rate driven flash crashes; medium-term (months) risks are ETF flows flipping from net inflow to outflow and macro rate shocks; long-term (years) upside remains intact if adoption grows and issuance remains capped. Hidden dependencies: counterparty concentration (prime broking, custodians) and cross-margining with equities create second-order contagion into tech stocks and clearinghouses.

Trade implications: Tactical constructive stance on spot Bitcoin with strict sizing and options overlays; prefer capped-loss structures (12–18 month call spreads) over naked positions to buy optionality vs unlimited downside. Express asymmetric exposure via NDAQ equity (1–2% overweight) to capture structural fee tailwinds; hedge systemic event risk with short-dated BTC protection or long volatility. Cross-asset: expect temporary equity tech weakness on major unwind days (NVDA correlation spikes), and modest downward pressure on risk assets if USD rallies and real yields rise.

Contrarian angles: Consensus that "scarcity is destroyed" underestimates on-chain settlement finality—paper leverage can unwind but cannot create new on-chain BTC; this argues for staged accumulation below behavioral thresholds (80k, 60k). The market may be overpricing near-term regulatory risk while underpricing persistent institutional demand via ETFs—if quarterly ETF flows remain positive, a rapid mean reversion is probable. Unintended consequence: heavy paperization raises clearinghouse margin requirements, which benefits NDAQ/CME revenues but increases systemic risk and the frequency of volatility spikes.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a staged long spot BTC allocation totaling 1–3% of portfolio: buy 0.5% at <$80k, add 0.75% at <$60k, add remaining 0.75% at <$40k; set a protective reduction to 50% position if BTC falls below $30k. Execute within 30–90 days using cold custody for at least 80% of position.
• Purchase a 12–18 month BTC call spread (bullish LEAP) sized ~0.5–1% of portfolio notional to capture asymmetric upside (example structure: long 12m call strike ~$100k, short 12m call strike ~$200k) to cap downside and limit premium spend; initiate within 60 days.
• Buy NDAQ equity (or equivalents) to a 1–2% portfolio weight as a structural long to capture higher derivatives/clearing fees; target 12–18 month hold, trim on a 30–50% price gain or if reported quarterly derivatives ADV falls >30% QoQ.
• Hedge tail risk with short-dated BTC protection: buy 1–2% notional of 1-month ATM put options or long BTC volatility product monthly and roll if realized vol remains elevated; if major regulatory restrictions are announced in the U.S./EU within 30–90 days, reduce BTC exposure by 50% and increase hedge notional to 3–5%.