Bitcoin Foundation chairman reveals why he continues to be bullish on Bitcoin

The text is a television programming schedule listing Fox Business and Fox News channel show names and times and contains no financial news, market data, corporate results, or economic analysis. There is no actionable information for investors or hedge funds in the content provided.

Analysis

Market structure: This TV schedule is a non-event for markets but flags a persistent winner: live news/linear-ad models (Fox Corp — FOXA/FOX) that monetize appointment viewing. Streaming players (NFLX, DIS, AMZN Prime Video) face secular pricing pressure and higher content spend; incremental advertising dollars flow to live formats during political/news cycles. Expect modest reallocation of ad budgets around upfronts (May–Jun) with potential 3–7% y/y rate moves concentrated in news-heavy lineups.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory/advertiser pullbacks (boycotts or FCC scrutiny) and an unexpectedly fast cord-cutting wave; both could wipe 10–25% of near-term EBITDA for broadcast/cable. Time horizons: immediate (days) — no reaction; short-term (weeks/months) — upfront ad prints and Nielsen ratings; long-term (12–36 months) — structural subscriber decline for pay-TV. Hidden dependency: broadcasters’ Qs rely on political ad cycles; a quieter cycle or advertiser flight would reverse gains quickly.

Trade implications: Favor modest exposure to FOXA/FOX (ad-revenue resiliency) and selective longs to Comcast (CMCSA) cable distribution; hedge with modest short exposure to high-multiple streaming names (NFLX) or buy puts. Use options to cap downside: 3–6 month call spreads on FOXA 15–25% OTM, paired with 3–6 month put spreads on NFLX 20% OTM. Entry: size initial positions now ahead of May upfronts; re-evaluate after upfront rate announcements.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates episodic upside from political/news-driven ad spikes — a straight-line decline thesis for broadcasters is likely underdone this cycle. Overdone risk: if markets reprice streaming winners too high, shorting 6–12 month maturities can be profitable. Historical parallel: election-year ad booms (2016/2020) produced 8–20% outperformance for ad-led networks; repeat is plausible but not guaranteed.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5–2.0% portfolio long in Fox Corp (FOXA/FOX) common stock within 1 week, target 10–15% absolute upside over 3–9 months driven by upfront/ad-rate re-pricing; set hard stop-loss at -6% from entry.
• Initiate a 1.0% short position in Netflix (NFLX) or a 0.75% short in Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) as relative exposure to expensive streaming; target 12–20% downside over 6–12 months if subscriber/ARPU misses recur.
• Buy a 3–6 month FOXA 15–25% OTM call spread sized to 0.5% notional as leveraged upside into May–June upfronts, funded by a 3–6 month NFLX 20% OTM put spread (~0.5% notional) to limit cost and express pair trade.
• Reduce high-multiple streaming exposure (NFLX, DIS) by 50–150 bps and redeploy into CMCSA (1.0% long) and Google (GOOGL 0.5% long) — Comcast for distribution/ad flux, Google as a digital ad barometer; if upfront ad rates >+5% y/y, increase FOXA to 3–4% within 30 days.