Notification of managers’ and closely related parties’ transactions with Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN A/S’ shares in connection with share buy-back program

Dampskibsselskabet NORDEN A/S announced that, under its ongoing share buy-back program, A/S Motortramp is continuously selling shares pro rata and that managers and closely related parties have reported transactions; the market is being informed per the attached file and prior announcements nos. 227/2025 and 228/2025. The notice is procedural disclosure of buyback execution and insider-related trades rather than new operational or financial guidance, implying limited immediate market impact.

Analysis

Market structure: The announced buy-back plus continuous selling by Motortramp tightens effective free float—net effect depends on gross buyback size versus Motortramp disposals. If buy-back purchases exceed Motortramp supply by >~30% of average daily volume (ADV) over a 2-week window, expect upward price pressure and reduced borrow availability that can squeeze shorts; if sales outpace buys, liquidity and price will be softened.

Risk assessment: Near-term (days–weeks) the biggest risks are execution noise and volatility around buy-back executions; medium-term (1–3 months) balance-sheet tradeoffs (cash used for buy-backs) could reduce flexibility if shipping rates weaken; long-term (quarters) outcomes hinge on underlying freight cycles. Tail risks include regulatory scrutiny of insider transactions or a sudden freight-rate shock that forces buy-back suspension—trigger thresholds: DKK earnings drop >20% q/q or leverage ratio increases by >0.5x.

Trade implications: Direct alpha from event flow — small tactical long in NORD (CPH:NORD) is warranted while buy-back runs and borrow tightens; use size discipline (1–3% NAV) and quant thresholds (buy when weekly net buy-back volume >20% ADV). Options: deploy 3-month call spreads or buy-write to monetize elevated near-term volatility; consider pair trade long NORD vs short A.P. Møller - Mærsk (CPH:MAERSK-A) if NORD buy-back is material relative to its cap.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may read any buy-back as unequivocally bullish; but Motortramp selling into the program could signal insider neutral-to-slightly bearish view or liquidity diversification. If buy-back is a defensive EPS management move rather than growth confidence, upside may be limited—avoid levering exposure unless buy-back totals >3–5% of market cap or sustained positive freight-rate revisions occur.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical long position in NORDEN (CPH:NORD) sized 1–3% of NAV within 5 trading days if company buy-back weekly net purchases >20% of ADV; set profit target +12% within 3 months and hard stop -8%.
• Buy a 3-month call spread on CPH:NORD (long 10% OTM call, short 25% OTM call) sized 0.5–1% of NAV to capture asymmetric upside from buy-back-driven squeezes while capping premium outlay; roll or close if implied vol falls >30% or stock rises >20%.
• If Motortramp selling volume > buys for 2 consecutive weeks and price drops >7%, short-term opportunistic short of CPH:NORD (0.5–1% NAV) is acceptable — cover when net buybacks resume or within 30 days.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long CPH:NORD (1% NAV) vs short CPH:MAERSK-A (0.5–1% NAV) for 1–3 month horizon if buy-back >3% of NORD market cap or net buyback/float ratio >3%; unwind if freight-rate PMI surprises +5% or quarterly results beat by >10% EBITDA.