Invitation to presentation of First Camp Group's report for the fourth quarter of 2025

First Camp Group AB will publish its fourth-quarter 2025 report on Friday, 13 February 2026 at around 08:00, followed by a digital investor presentation at 09:00 where CEO Johan Söör and CFO Göran Meijer will present and host a Q&A session. The presentation will be held in English and webcast via the company's investor site; the invitation contains no financial figures, so investors should review the released report for Q4 revenue, earnings and any guidance that could affect the stock.

Analysis

Market structure: The Q4 presentation is an event risk concentrated on First Camp Group (Sweden-listed leisure parks) and immediate suppliers (park operators, utilities, seasonal staffing). Positive booking/guidance surprises would lift pricing power (ability to raise ADR by 3–7%) because physical capacity is fixed; negative guidance would compress margins quickly due to high fixed property costs. Cross-asset impact is small but real: a surprise miss could widen Nordic high‑yield spreads 20–50bp and push SEK down 0.5–1.5% vs. EUR on weaker consumer discretionary signals.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include weather-driven demand shocks, a regulatory clamp on campsite expansion, or rapid interest-rate moves that raise financing costs by 100–200bp and make capex uneconomic; any of these could knock EBITDA 10–30%. Immediate (days) risk is an earnings-volatility spike; short-term (0–3 months) depends on guidance and booking cadence for Apr–Aug; long-term (12–24 months) hinges on expansion capex and covenant resilience. Hidden dependencies: reliance on advance bookings and mortgage rates for consumer demand; weak advance bookings are an early red flag.

Trade implications: For the Feb 13 event, IV will rise—use short-dated (7–14 day) ATM straddles sized 0.5–1% portfolio to capture a directional move, and trim if move >15% or IV collapses >40% post-release. If First Camp raises guidance or reports ≥5% YoY booking growth, establish a 2–3% long position targeting 20–30% upside in 12 months with a 12% stop; if bookings miss by ≥5% YoY, buy 3–6 month puts or short 1–2% sizing targeting 20–40% downside. Rotate 1–2% from hotel chains (e.g., Scandic Hotels STO:SCND) into camping exposure on outperformance.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will focus on headline revenue; the market may undervalue recurring membership revenue and asset valuation optionality—if the stock drops >10% on soft guidance but advance bookings remain stable, it can be a tactical buy. Historical parallels: post‑pandemic leisure re-rating in 2021 shows durable rebounds after temporary booking noise; unintended consequence of a rally is management accelerating debt-funded expansion, which would reverse gains if rates stay high.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy a short-dated (7–14 day) ATM straddle on First Camp Group (Sweden-listed equity) sized 0.5–1.0% of portfolio ahead of the Feb 13 presentation to capture an earnings-driven move; take profits if the stock moves >15% or if implied volatility collapses >40% within 5 trading days.
• If Q4 shows ≥5% YoY advance booking growth or management raises FY26 guidance, initiate a 2–3% long position in First Camp (target 20–30% upside in 12 months) with a hard stop-loss at 12% and reassess after 3 months based on occupancy and ADR trends for Apr–Aug.
• If Q4 bookings miss by ≥5% YoY or management cuts guidance, establish a 1–2% short or buy 3–6 month puts sized to target 20–40% downside; cover if bookings recover to within 2% of prior-year levels or if the stock rallies >10% on no fundamental improvement.
• Establish a tactical pair trade: long First Camp (1% exposure) vs short Scandic Hotels (STO:SCND) (1% exposure) for 3–6 months, expecting camping to outperform hotels; unwind if Swedish consumer confidence index falls >10 points or if Swedish CPI-driven interest-rate increases exceed 100bp.