Factbox-US and Europe do billions in trade with Russia despite sanctions

Despite extensive sanctions, the EU and US continue to maintain notable commercial ties with Russia, albeit at significantly reduced levels. While EU imports from Russia plummeted 89% between Q1 2022 and Q2 2025, and energy reliance on Russian oil and gas has sharply decreased, Russia remains the EU's largest fertilizer exporter, increasing its market share to 34%. Similarly, US imports from Russia have declined but persist for strategic commodities like fertilizers, uranium, and palladium, highlighting enduring dependencies amidst geopolitical tensions.

Analysis

Despite broad sanctions, the EU and U.S. maintain strategic, albeit significantly reduced, commercial ties with Russia. EU imports from Russia have plummeted 89% between Q1 2022 and Q2 2025, with reliance on Russian petroleum and natural gas falling to just 2% and 12% of total imports, respectively. This energy diversification has been largely backfilled by the U.S. for LNG, which now supplies 54% of the EU's needs, and Algeria for natural gas. However, critical dependencies persist and in some cases have deepened; Russia's share of the EU fertilizer market has increased from 28% to 34% over the past four years, making it the bloc's largest supplier. Similarly, the U.S. continues to import strategic Russian goods, including $1.27 billion in fertilizers and $624 million in enriched uranium in 2024, signaling inelastic demand for specific commodities that are difficult to substitute. The potential for new EU tariffs on fertilizers introduces uncertainty, but the existing trade patterns underscore the economic complexities limiting a full decoupling from the Russian economy.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor agricultural and chemical companies for potential input cost volatility, as Russia's growing dominance in the EU fertilizer market (34% share) and stable U.S. imports represent a concentrated supply risk vulnerable to future sanctions or tariffs.
• Consider exposure to non-Russian producers of uranium and palladium, as continued Western imports from Russia highlight a structural supply dependency that could benefit alternative suppliers in the event of further geopolitical escalations.
• The fundamental re-routing of European energy supplies away from Russian pipelines toward global LNG and alternative sources suggests a long-term strategic re-evaluation of investments in European energy logistics, storage, and infrastructure.