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Soybeans Close Higher on Thursday, Assisted by Meal Strength

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Soybeans Close Higher on Thursday, Assisted by Meal Strength

Soybean futures closed higher Thursday, driven by gains in soymeal, with contracts rising 3 to 5 cents. USDA's weekly Export Sales report showed old crop soybean sales exceeding trade estimates at 307,939 MT, while soymeal sales were in line with expectations; however, sales for 2025/26 were tallied at 15,000 MT below estimates. The International Grains Council reported steady world soybean production but trimmed 2025/26 world stocks by 2 MMT to 81 MMT.

Analysis

Soybean futures contracts demonstrated strength into the Thursday close, registering gains of 3 to 5 cents, buoyed significantly by rising soymeal futures which were up $3.10 to $4.60 per ton; conversely, soy oil futures experienced a downturn, declining 37 to 72 points. This positive momentum in beans was further supported by the USDA's weekly Export Sales report, which revealed old crop soybean sales for the week of May 15th at 307,939 metric tons (MT), surpassing trade expectations of 100,000 to 300,000 MT and marking a 9% increase from the prior week and a 10.2% rise year-over-year, with Mexico as a lead buyer. However, this strength in current demand was contrasted by weaker forward bookings, as 2025/26 soybean sales amounted to only 15,000 MT, substantially below the anticipated 90,000 to 400,000 MT. Soybean meal export sales for the current marketing year were solid at 359,579 MT, aligning with market estimates, while bean oil sales at 13,660 MT also fell within the expected range. On the global supply-demand front, the International Grains Council maintained its world soybean production forecast at 428 MMT but indicated a tighter outlook by increasing consumption estimates by 2 MMT and consequently trimming projected 2025/26 world stocks by 2 MMT to 81 MMT.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately positive

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0.50

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Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should acknowledge the current strength in soybean futures, underpinned by robust old crop export sales and firm soymeal prices, but exercise caution regarding longer-term positions due to significantly weaker-than-anticipated new crop export sales for the 2025/26 marketing year.
  • It may be prudent to factor in the International Grains Council's revised forecast of tighter 2025/26 global soybean stocks, which could provide underlying price support despite disappointing forward sales figures.
  • Traders should continue to monitor the divergent price movements between soymeal and soy oil, as this spread significantly influences soybean crush margins and the overall direction of the soy complex.