Earnings Preview: PVH (PVH) Q1 Earnings Expected to Decline

PVH Corp. (PVH), owner of Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfiger, is anticipated to report a year-over-year earnings decline of 9% to $2.23 per share on revenues of $1.94 billion (down 0.8%) for the quarter ending April 2025. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upward by 1.1% over the last 30 days, PVH's negative Earnings ESP of -1.05% suggests analysts have become more bearish, making an earnings beat less certain despite a Zacks Rank of #2.

Analysis

PVH Corp. is approaching its Q1 2025 earnings report, scheduled for June 4, 2025, with consensus estimates pointing to a year-over-year contraction. The market anticipates quarterly earnings of $2.23 per share, representing a 9% decrease from the same period last year, alongside revenues of $1.94 billion, a 0.8% decline. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised upwards by 1.1% in the last 30 days, a more recent bearish sentiment from analysts is indicated by a Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -1.05%, stemming from the Most Accurate Estimate being lower than the consensus. Despite PVH holding a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), this negative ESP makes it challenging to confidently predict an earnings beat, as the model's predictive strength is primarily associated with positive ESP readings. Notably, PVH has a consistent history of outperforming expectations, having beaten consensus EPS estimates in all of the past four quarters, with the last reported quarter showing a +2.51% surprise. The actual results relative to these forecasts and, critically, management's discussion on business conditions during the earnings call, will be pivotal for the stock's near-term direction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should exercise caution ahead of PVH's Q1 earnings due to mixed signals: expected year-over-year declines and a negative Earnings ESP (-1.05%) contrast with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and a strong historical earnings beat record.
• Monitor the actual earnings on June 4, 2025, against the consensus estimates of $2.23 EPS and $1.94 billion revenue, as deviations could significantly impact the stock price, and closely scrutinize management's forward guidance and commentary on business conditions.
• Given the current data, conclusively predicting an earnings beat is difficult; therefore, assessing risk tolerance and potentially waiting for the earnings release and subsequent management outlook before initiating or significantly altering positions in PVH may be prudent.