Sampo raises 2025 underwriting result outlook after strong Q2

Nordic insurer Sampo Group reported robust second-quarter results, with its underwriting result increasing 23% to EUR 393 million and net profit rising 35% to EUR 417 million, driven by 8% like-for-like premium growth and an improved combined ratio of 82.6%. Following this strong performance, the company raised its 2025 underwriting result forecast to EUR 1,425-1,525 million and announced a new EUR 200 million share buyback program. Additionally, Sampo confirmed Morten Thorsrud will succeed Torbjörn Magnusson as Group CEO effective October 1, 2025.

Analysis

Sampo Group demonstrated significant operational strength in its second-quarter results, highlighted by a 23% year-over-year increase in its underwriting result to EUR 393 million and a 35% rise in net profit to EUR 417 million. This enhanced profitability was driven by a combination of 8% like-for-like premium growth and improved underwriting discipline, reflected in a 1.8 percentage point reduction in the combined ratio to a solid 82.6%. Growth was particularly strong in key markets, with the Nordics private business growing premiums by 9% and the UK operations by 13%. This performance has led management to raise its 2025 guidance, now forecasting an underwriting result of EUR 1,425-1,525 million and revenue growth of 6-9%. The company's financial health is further underscored by its 174% Solvency II coverage, which supports a new EUR 200 million share buyback program, signaling a direct return of capital to shareholders. The confirmed CEO succession, with internal candidate Morten Thorsrud taking over in October 2025, suggests leadership continuity and a stable strategic direction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• The strong Q2 performance, improved combined ratio, and upwardly revised 2025 guidance provide a solid fundamental basis for a positive investment thesis on the company.
• Investors should factor the new EUR 200 million share buyback program into their valuation models, as it represents a tangible catalyst for shareholder returns supported by a robust capital position.
• It is prudent to monitor the execution of the announced growth strategy and continuation of underwriting discipline under the new leadership of Morten Thorsrud post-October 2025.