Mapping Israel’s expanding air attacks across Syria

Since December 2024, following the collapse of the al-Assad regime, Israel has significantly increased its air strikes in Syria, averaging one every three to four days and totaling over 200 attacks in the last six months, primarily targeting military infrastructure and suspected arms convoys in southern governorates like Deraa, Damascus, and Quneitra. Israeli troops have also advanced into the Golan Heights, drawing international condemnation despite Israel's stated intent to protect its citizens and prevent hostile entities from gaining a foothold near the border. While these attacks have been ongoing since 2017, their frequency has escalated sharply in recent months.

Analysis

Israel has significantly intensified its military operations in Syria following the collapse of the al-Assad regime in December 2024, conducting over 200 air, drone, or artillery attacks in the subsequent six months, averaging an assault approximately every three to four days. These operations have reportedly destroyed substantial Syrian military infrastructure, including airports, air defence systems, and strategic assets, with a pronounced focus on southern governorates: Deraa experienced 57 attacks, Damascus governorate 49 (with 18 on Damascus city), and Quneitra 25, targeting military sites, arms convoys, and surveillance infrastructure. Concurrently, Israeli ground forces advanced into the Syrian Golan Heights, including the UN-monitored demilitarised zone, and commenced construction of at least six military bases, actions Israel states are for security but which have drawn international condemnation as violations of the 1974 disengagement agreement and Syrian sovereignty. Despite the new Syrian leadership under President Ahmed al-Sharaa expressing a desire to avoid conflict, Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz affirmed forces would remain indefinitely. This escalation builds upon a trend of increasing Israeli attacks in Syria since 2017, as per ACLED data. The situation is characterized by a "strongly negative" sentiment (score -0.7) and a high market impact score of 0.7, falling under the themes of "Geopolitics & War" and "Infrastructure & Defense".

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should rigorously assess portfolio exposure to geopolitical risks in the Middle East, recognizing the heightened instability signaled by the escalated military actions in Syria and the associated 'strongly negative' sentiment and 'high market impact' score of 0.7.
• Consider the implications for the defense sector, as the sustained military operations, destruction of existing infrastructure, and construction of new military installations may influence demand and regional security expenditures.
• Closely monitor assets sensitive to Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, including energy markets and companies with regional operations, given the ongoing conflict, territorial incursions, and international condemnations.
• Factor in the prevailing uncertainty stemming from the dichotomy between the new Syrian leadership's de-escalatory rhetoric and Israel's continued military assertiveness when evaluating regional investment outlooks.