Guggenheim cuts Amgen stock price target to $340 on valuation By Investing.com

Guggenheim cut its price target on Amgen to $340 from $351 while keeping a Neutral rating, citing a slightly lower FY2026 revenue estimate of $37.68B and a higher non-GAAP EPS forecast of $21.91. Amgen’s Q1 2026 results beat expectations with EPS of $5.15 versus $4.80 expected and revenue of $8.62B versus $8.59B, but the stock still fell 4.75% on Friday and is down about 3% over the week amid concerns around MariTide competition.

Analysis

AMGN looks less like a fundamental deterioration story and more like a positioning unwind ahead of an overbuilt catalyst calendar. The share reaction implies the market is discounting not just MariTide data risk, but the possibility that GLP-1/obesity enthusiasm is being repriced across the whole large-cap biotech complex as investors wait for more differentiated readouts. That creates a second-order effect: names with cleaner near-term visibility in immunology or oncology may see relative rotation away from obesity-exposed platforms over the next 2-6 weeks.

The setup is asymmetric because the near-term downside is driven by competition narrative, while the upside requires a harder proof point: data that materially separates efficacy, tolerability, or dosing convenience from peers. If ADA disappoints on differentiation, AMGN can de-rate further even if execution remains solid, since multiples are likely being anchored to franchise optionality rather than current earnings. Conversely, a single favorable slide on durability or safety could force a quick repricing because short interest and bearish analyst positioning appear to have left little room for a crowd-pleasing surprise.

The contrarian read is that the stock may already be pricing in a competitive failure that has not yet been demonstrated. With earnings and guidance still holding up, the market is effectively paying a low-growth multiple for a company that is still compounding core cash flow and has multiple shots on goal; that usually creates a better medium-term floor than headline sentiment suggests. Over a 3-12 month horizon, the bigger risk is not one data meeting, but a sequence of incremental de-ratings if obesity expectations keep getting pushed out without a clear winner.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy AMGN on weakness only after the ADA setup is better defined; target a 3-6 month horizon with a stop if the stock loses the recent post-earnings support zone, since the current selloff may be sentiment-driven rather than cash-flow driven.
• Use a call spread on AMGN into ADA rather than outright stock: limited premium, defined risk, and asymmetric upside if MariTide shows credible differentiation. Favor 1-2 month tenor to capture event volatility.
• Pair trade: long AMGN vs short a basket of obesity-beta peers with richer expectation risk over the same 1-2 month window. The trade monetizes a potential cleanup bid in AMGN if the market rotates from platform hype to earnings quality.
• If already long AMGN, hedge event risk with short-dated puts into ADA; implied volatility should be preferable to giving back earnings gains if the data disappoints.
• Watch for analyst revision momentum over the next 2-4 weeks: if estimate cuts broaden beyond one or two models, reduce exposure, because multiple compression will likely become self-reinforcing.