Canadians are avoiding trips to US ski slopes over Trump

U.S. border towns and ski resorts are reporting material declines in Canadian visitors after political tensions with the Trump administration and threats of tariffs, compounded by a weaker Canadian dollar and below-average snow. Jay Peak reported Canadian bookings down 10–15% and Killington cited visible anger among Canadian skiers; Kalispell saw an estimated 39% drop in Canadian credit-card spending, and overall Canadian trips to the U.S. fell at least 30% in December 2025 versus December 2024, marking the 12th consecutive year-over-year monthly decline. The drop is reducing retail and tourism revenues in border communities and could press near-term earnings and cash flows for regional leisure operators dependent on Canadian traffic.

Analysis

Market structure: The data imply localized demand destruction concentrated in border/seasonal leisure (ski resorts, border retail, small-town restaurants). Reported declines — 10–15% fewer season-pass renewals at Jay Peak, ~30% YoY drop in December trips, and ~39% decline in credit-card spending in Kalispell — point to meaningful revenue hits for small operators that rely >15% of receipts from Canadians. Large diversified hotel chains and national travel platforms will absorb some lost volume; pricing power will shift away from small independent operators toward national chains and domestic destinations.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include escalation to formal travel restrictions or reciprocal Canadian measures (low-probability, high-impact) and a sharper CAD depreciation if commodity prices fall or risk premium widens, which would further depress cross-border demand. Immediate (days) risk: volatile headlines; short-term (weeks–months): winter booking revisions and promotional discounting; long-term (quarters–years): persistent political-driven avoidance could permanently re-route some winter demand to domestic Canadian resorts. Hidden dependencies: regional tax receipts and municipal service revenues, plus local commercial real-estate valuations, amplify second-order stress on regional banks and REITs.

Trade implications: FX is first-order — expect continued USD strength vs CAD; opportunistic short-CAD/long-USDCAD position for 1–3 months to capture a 3–5% move, stop -2%. Target small-cap leisure operators, municipal-credit and community-bank exposure in affected counties for tactical shorts or credit hedges over 3–12 months. Conversely, favor national hotel chains and large-cap travel companies that can reprice and capture domestic substitution (3–6 month horizon).

Contrarian angles: Consensus focuses on headline tourism losses but may underweight durable substitution (Canadians choosing Canadian resorts or staycations) and structural pricing moves (US resorts offering deeper discounts, compressing margins). Overreaction could create mispricings in large-cap travel names (MAR, HLT) that will weather a Canada-driven blip; equally, underpriced distress in municipal bonds and small commercial RE loans near the border could present selectively high-yield opportunities if priced for permanent impairment but recovery is likely in 12–24 months.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–4% notional long USDCAD position (spot or 3-month futures) or short FXC to capture further CAD weakness; target +3–5% move vs entry within 1–3 months, hard stop -2% to limit FX tail risk.
• Open a tactical bearish position on small/regionally concentrated leisure equities: initiate a 1–2% short or buy 3-month put spread on Vail Resorts (MTN) to hedge exposure to NE ski-season downside; target 15–25% downside or hedge value if season renewal trends worsen.
• Go long 2–3% position in large-cap, diversified hotel operator Marriott International (MAR) to capture domestic substitution and pricing power; target 6–12% upside over 3–6 months as rate of discounting by independents increases.
• Reduce direct exposure to regional banks and small commercial REITs with heavy border-county retail/tourism lending by 20–30% if overweight; selectively buy 12–36 month distressed mun credits only after tranche prices reflect >30% NPL risk and after county revenue revisions are published.
• Use options in lieu of cash positions where timing is uncertain: buy 3-month put spreads on targeted small leisure names (caps loss, levered downside) and sell 1–2 month covered calls on MAR to finance long exposure if volatility remains elevated.