Trump team reportedly exploring implications of oil reaching $200 per barrel (CL1:COM:Commodity)

Key number: officials are modeling a potential oil-price spike to $200 per barrel tied to extreme Iran-war scenarios. The administration's review signals material downside tail risk to growth and higher inflation, prompting contingency planning given the potential for market-wide effects across equities, bonds and FX.

Analysis

Key number: officials are modeling a potential oil-price spike to $200 per barrel tied to extreme Iran-war scenarios. The administration's review signals material downside tail risk to growth and higher inflation, prompting contingency planning given the potential for market-wide effects across equities, bonds and FX.