Notable Tuesday Option Activity: AVGO, ADSK, SMCI

Autodesk (ADSK) saw 9,873 options contracts trade (≈987,300 underlying shares), roughly 76.1% of its one‑month average daily volume, with notable activity in the $290 put expiring Nov. 28, 2025 (1,566 contracts, ≈156,600 shares). Super Micro Computer (SMCI) registered 147,099 contracts (≈14.7M underlying shares), about 48.2% of its one‑month ADV, led by the $36 call expiring Nov. 28, 2025 (13,994 contracts, ≈1.4M shares). The flows indicate concentrated directional/options positioning in both names that could influence intraday liquidity and volatility.

Analysis

Market structure: The outsized flow in ADSK Nov 28, 2025 $290 puts (≈156.6k shares) and SMCI Nov 28, 2025 $36 calls (≈1.4M shares) signals concentrated directional or hedging bets by large players — dealers will delta-hedge, adding meaningful gamma flow into each underlying over months, not days. Immediate beneficiary: options sellers and market-makers who collect premium and manage flow; potential loser: passive holders of ADSK if puts are directional and forces selling pressure into skew.

Risk assessment: Tail risks are corporate-specific (SMCI server-backlog surprise or ADSK subscription-churn/GAAP revenue miss) and macro (sharp CPU cycle slowdown or AI capex re-rate) that could flip these trades; a large unilateral unwind could move stocks 10-30% intramonth. Near-term (days–weeks) expect elevated IV and dealer hedging; medium-term (3–9 months) outcomes hinge on product/earnings catalysts; long-term (to Nov 2025) positions reflect multi-quarter views on secular demand.

Trade implications: Prefer defined-risk, asymmetric option structures: for SMCI, targeted long-dated bull-call spreads to capture upside while capping premium; for ADSK, defined put spreads or collars to express bearish or hedged views without open-ended risk. Use pair/relative trades (long SMCI calls, short ADSK put spreads) to isolate technology capex vs software subscription exposure and limit market beta.

Contrarian angles: The market may be misreading flow — large put volume in ADSK could be portfolio protection/rolls rather than fresh bearish discovery; SMCI call prints may be volatility sellers hedging equity shorts. If IV rises >30% vs 30-day average, the crowd could be overpaying; conversely, low follow-through would create mean-reversion opportunities into Nov 2025 expiry.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a defined-risk bullish position in SMCI: buy Nov 28, 2025 $36/$60 bull-call spread sized 1.5–2.5% of portfolio notional within the next 5 trading days; target a 40–80% return, trim half at 40% realized gain, and cut if spread loses 50% of premium.
• Express bearish/hedged view on ADSK with limited downside: buy Nov 28, 2025 $290/$240 put spread sized 1–2% of portfolio notional (max loss = premium); enter within 10 trading days and close if the spread doubles in value or ADSK trades >$290 for 60 consecutive trading days.