Sonoco (SON) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Sonoco (SON) is scheduled to report its second-quarter 2025 earnings on July 23, with consensus estimates projecting a 12.5% year-over-year EPS increase to $1.44 and a 16.8% revenue rise to $1.9 billion. However, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 1.24% lower over the past 30 days, and the company's Zacks Earnings ESP of -0.56% combined with a Zacks Rank #3 suggests a low probability of an earnings beat, indicating potential downside risk if actual results fall short of expectations.

Analysis

Sonoco (SON) is approaching its Q2 2025 earnings report on July 23 with a mixed set of expectations. While the consensus forecast projects significant year-over-year growth, with earnings per share (EPS) expected to rise 12.5% to $1.44 and revenue projected to increase 16.8% to $1.9 billion, several leading indicators suggest caution. The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.24% over the past 30 days, signaling a slight deterioration in analyst sentiment. More importantly, the company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) is negative at -0.56%, which indicates that the most recent analyst estimates are trending below the broader consensus. This, combined with a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), makes it difficult to predict an earnings beat. This view is further supported by Sonoco's recent performance, where it missed the last quarterly EPS estimate and has only surpassed consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters, highlighting a pattern of inconsistency.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the negative Earnings ESP of -0.56% and recent downward estimate revisions, investors should be cautious about initiating or increasing positions ahead of the report, as the probability of a positive earnings surprise is considered low.
• Focus should be placed on management's forward-looking guidance and commentary on business conditions during the earnings call, as this will likely be more critical for the stock's medium-term performance than the headline earnings result itself.
• Considering the conflicting signals of strong year-over-year growth projections versus weak near-term surprise indicators, it may be prudent to wait for the market's reaction to the actual results and guidance before committing capital.