Soybeans Continue Slide on Monday Despite Another Chinese Purchase

Soybeans eased 4–5 cents as the market “sold the fact” on Chinese purchases, with the national cash bean price around $10.01 and nearby futures down roughly 5 cents; Jan/Mar/May contracts also closed lower. USDA reported a 136,000‑MT private sale to China, export inspections at 795,661 MT (down 22.4% w/w and 59.6% y/y) and marketing‑year shipments at 13.702 MMT (‑46.3% y/y), while an Export Sales backlog showed 2.232 MMT in the Nov. 20 week including 2.14 MMT to China and known Chinese sales now about 4.2 MMT. Fundamental support comes from a record November crush of 216.04 million bushels (NOPA), but rising soybean oil stocks (1.513 billion lbs, +39.6% y/y) have pressured oil futures; managed money cut 15,336 contracts from net longs (to 214,289), EPA RVO finalization is likely delayed until next year, and Brazilian planting is about 97% complete—factors that point to near‑term price softness despite firm crush demand.

Analysis

Soybeans closed Monday down 4–5 cents as the market "sold the fact" on Chinese purchases; the national cash bean price was about $10.01 and nearby Jan/Mar/May futures finished near $10.71 3/4, $10.81 1/4 and $10.93 respectively. USDA reported a private 136,000 MT sale to China while export inspections for the week to Dec. 11 were 795,661 MT (29.24 mbu), down 22.4% w/w and 59.6% y/y, and marketing-year shipments stand at 13.702 MMT (503.47 mbu), a 46.3% decline year/year; known sales to China are roughly 4.2 MMT including the Nov. 20 backlog.

Fundamentals are mixed: NOPA members crushed a record 216.04 million bushels in November (+11.83% y/y), supporting soybean meal which rallied about $0.70 to $1.10, while soybean oil stocks rose to 1.513 billion lbs (+39.6% y/y) and oil futures weakened 30–70 cents. Export sales and inspections show demand concentration in China (202,043 MT) but overall weekly shipments are materially lower, and managed-money reduced net long positions by 15,336 contracts to 214,289 as of Nov. 25, indicating speculative de-risking.

Supply and policy signals point to limited near-term upside: AgRural reports Brazil 97% planted, and Reuters notes EPA finalization of 2026 RVOs likely delayed into next year, leaving upside dependent on additional Chinese purchases or tighter global shipments.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce near-term long exposure to soybean futures or implement hedges given the "sell the fact" reaction, weak weekly inspections and rising soybean oil inventories
• Consider maintaining or selectively increasing exposure to soybean meal/crush-related trades because November crush was a record and meal futures are firmer, monitor NOPA and meal sales for confirmation
• Monitor weekly export inspections and daily Chinese purchase announcements, soybean oil stocks and the EPA RVO timeline closely and use option spreads to protect positions if these indicators deteriorate