USDA Lowers Corn and Soybean Production Estimates

The USDA's November 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the first following a government shutdown, presented a mixed outlook for key commodities. For corn, the USDA lowered yield and production estimates less than market expectations, resulting in U.S. ending stocks rising to 2.2 billion bushels, above trade forecasts, which was largely perceived as bearish. Conversely, soybean yield and production were cut more significantly than anticipated, leading to a surprising reduction in U.S. soybean ending stocks, despite a downgrade in export projections due to increased global competition. Globally, both corn and soybean ending stocks were lowered against expectations for increases, while wheat supplies were raised, with analysts noting concerns over the report's accuracy due to data limitations from the shutdown.

Analysis

The USDA's November 2025 WASDE report, the first following a government shutdown, presented a mixed but largely bearish outlook for key agricultural commodities. U.S. corn yield and production estimates were lowered less than average trade expectations, resulting in a 44 million bushel increase in ending stocks to 2.2 billion, exceeding forecasts and contributing to a bearish market tone. Conversely, soybean yield and production cuts were more significant than anticipated, leading to a surprising reduction in U.S. ending stocks despite a 50 million bushel downgrade in export projections due to increased global competition.

Globally, both corn and soybean ending stocks were lowered, contrary to average trade expectations for increases, while wheat ending stocks increased more than expected. Analysts, including Jeremy McCann and Bob Linneman, highlighted concerns over the report's accuracy due to data limitations stemming from the government shutdown, with the USDA itself acknowledging these constraints. The corn yield estimate of 186 bushels per acre was notably higher than the trade's expectation of 184 bpa, reinforcing the bearish market reaction.

The higher-than-expected corn ending stocks, despite a production decrease, signal an oversupply relative to demand, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. For soybeans, the unexpected reduction in U.S. ending stocks, even with lower export forecasts, suggests tighter domestic supply than initially projected, potentially mitigating some bearish pressure from global competition. Wheat's increased supplies and ending stocks indicate a robust harvest, driven by a record all-wheat yield.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor subsequent WASDE reports for data revisions, especially given the acknowledged limitations of this report due to the government shutdown.
• Evaluate corn positions for potential downside risk given the bearish sentiment from higher-than-expected ending stocks and consider support levels around $4.20-$4.25 for December futures.
• Assess soybean exposure for relative strength compared to corn, as reduced U.S. ending stocks could provide some price support despite export competition.
• Consider the implications of increased global wheat supplies on pricing and market dynamics.