AutoZone (AZO) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?

AutoZone (AZO) is anticipated to report earnings for the quarter ended August 2025 on September 23, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $51.10 (+6.2% YoY) and revenues of $6.23 billion (+0.4% YoY). Despite these growth expectations, the company exhibits a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and a negative Earnings ESP of -1.89%, suggesting analysts' most recent estimates are below consensus. This, alongside a history of missing EPS estimates in the last four quarters, indicates a low probability of an earnings beat, posing a potential downside risk if actual results fall short of expectations.

Analysis

AutoZone (AZO) is approaching its quarterly earnings report on September 23 with consensus estimates projecting year-over-year growth, specifically a 6.2% increase in EPS to $51.10 and a 0.4% rise in revenues to $6.23 billion. However, several leading indicators suggest a heightened risk of underperformance. The company has a negative Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of -1.89%, indicating that the most recent analyst estimates are trending below the consensus, a bearish signal. This is compounded by a poor track record, as AutoZone has failed to beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters, with the most recent report showing a -3.86% miss. Furthermore, the stock carries a Zacks Rank of #4 (Sell), which, when combined with a negative ESP, historically correlates with a low probability of an earnings beat. The consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the past 30 days also suggests a lack of positive catalysts to drive analyst sentiment higher, creating a cautious outlook despite the headline growth expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should be cautious about initiating or adding to long positions in AZO ahead of the earnings release, given the combination of a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and a negative Earnings ESP of -1.89% signals a high probability of a negative earnings surprise.
• Considering AutoZone's history of missing consensus EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters, existing shareholders may wish to review their exposure or consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential downside volatility post-announcement.
• Pay close attention to management's forward-looking guidance on the earnings call, as the very modest projected revenue growth of 0.4% could be a significant point of concern for investors, potentially overshadowing the EPS figure and influencing the stock's direction.