Tennessee amid many states ‘treading water’ into recession, report says

A report by Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, indicates that 23 U.S. states are in or near recession, with an additional 12 states, including Tennessee, currently "treading water" into a recession. This "treading water" status signifies economies that are stagnating without significant growth but have not yet entered a full recession. The assessment, which also highlights slowing growth even in generally strong southern states, faces complications due to the government shutdown impacting economic data availability.

Analysis

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, reports that 23 U.S. states are either in or approaching a recession, with an additional 12 states, including Tennessee, currently "treading water." This "treading water" status indicates economic stagnation without significant growth, preceding a full recession. The assessment highlights a broad-based economic deceleration across multiple states.

The analysis, based on a comprehensive dataset including payroll, employment, industrial production, and retail sales, suggests a widespread slowdown. While southern states have historically shown strength, their growth is now decelerating. Tennessee, with a stated 1.87% U.S. GDP (as per the article), is among those states experiencing this stagnation.

A significant challenge to this economic assessment is the ongoing government shutdown, which complicates data availability and potentially impacts the accuracy of future forecasts. The overall sentiment is moderately negative and pessimistic, reflecting concerns about the broadening economic weakness. This broad state-level economic weakness could translate into headwinds for national growth and corporate earnings.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should assess their portfolio companies' revenue exposure to the 23 states identified as in or near recession, and the 12 "treading water" states, as regional economic weakness could impact earnings.
• Acknowledge the increased uncertainty in economic forecasting due to the government shutdown impacting data availability, which may lead to delayed or less precise market signals.
• Given the moderately negative sentiment and pessimistic tone regarding state-level economies, a review of defensive sector allocations or companies with resilient business models may be prudent.