TSX futures climb after Trump announces Iran ceasefire extension By Investing.com

The market is treating this as a near-term de-escalation rally, but the bigger setup is a volatility regime change rather than a clean risk-on move. Even if the ceasefire reduces headline risk for a few sessions, the persistence of attacks around the Strait means transport insurance, routing, and fuel-input hedges will stay elevated; that keeps a floor under energy costs and compresses margins in fuel-intensive industries. The second-order winner is not simply oil producers, but any company with pricing power and short-cycle ability to reprice around higher input costs.

The most interesting relative value is in transport and aerospace. Airlines face a slow-burn earnings hit because fuel is the cost line that changes fastest while fare pass-through lags by weeks to months; that makes near-term guidance risk higher than consensus typically models after a geopolitical shock. By contrast, Boeing and GE Vernova can benefit from a global industrial rotation toward defense, power resilience, and supply-chain redundancy, which tends to show up in order flow before it is fully visible in reported earnings.

FX and rates matter here: if crude stays near triple digits, the dollar’s recent softness may prove temporary as investors again seek liquidity and U.S. energy insulation, which would cap gold’s upside and pressure broader non-U.S. risk assets. The contrarian view is that the market may be overestimating how quickly a ceasefire resolves logistics friction; even a partial reopening of the strait does not normalize insurance, war-risk premia, or vessel behavior immediately, so the inflation impulse could outlast the headline cycle by 1-2 quarters.