Venezuelan military preparing guerrilla response in case of US attack

Venezuela is preparing for a potential U.S. military intervention by deploying outdated Russian equipment and planning unconventional "prolonged resistance" or "anarchization" tactics to sow chaos, a strategy necessitated by its severely debilitated military and equipment shortages. This approach, which analysts view as deterrence through chaos rather than conventional defense, signals a high risk of prolonged instability and potential disruption in the region, carrying significant implications for global oil markets and broader geopolitical risk for institutional investors.

Analysis

Venezuela is preparing for a potential U.S. military intervention by deploying decades-old Russian-made equipment and planning unconventional "prolonged resistance" and "anarchization" tactics. This strategy, involving small military units for sabotage and armed ruling-party supporters to create urban disorder, tacitly acknowledges the severe debilitation of its military, which suffers from personnel shortages, low wages, and deteriorating equipment. Sources indicate the military is not prepared for conventional conflict, with one stating they "wouldn't last two hours."

The "prolonged resistance" plan involves small units at over 280 locations for guerrilla tactics, while "anarchization" aims to make Caracas ungovernable for foreign forces using intelligence services and armed civilians. Venezuela's military hardware, including Sukhoi jets and Igla missiles, is largely outdated, with analysts noting its inferiority to modern U.S. capabilities. Despite public assertions of readiness, the government has appealed to Russia for equipment repairs and upgrades, highlighting its technological deficiencies.

Internal vulnerabilities are significant, with rank-and-file soldiers earning only $100 monthly, far below basic living costs, raising concerns about potential desertions. While President Maduro claims millions of civilians are training, sources estimate only 5,000-7,000 would participate in "anarchization" and 60,000 in guerrilla warfare. Defense analyst Andrei Serbin Pont suggests this approach is "deterrence through chaos," implying a high risk of prolonged instability and the potential for outdated equipment to fall into the hands of non-state actors, exacerbating regional violence.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor geopolitical developments in Venezuela closely, as the potential for unconventional conflict and prolonged instability presents significant regional and global market risks, particularly for oil prices.
• Assess exposure to assets sensitive to Latin American political instability or energy supply disruptions, considering the "extremely negative" sentiment and "pessimistic" tone surrounding Venezuela's defense posture.
• Evaluate the potential for increased humanitarian crises and refugee flows, which could impact neighboring economies and international aid organizations, and consider implications for ESG-focused investments.