Soybean futures closed near unchanged, though the October average price remains elevated, supported by recent rallies and rumored Chinese purchases of at least 180,000 MT ahead of the Trump/Xi meeting. Despite a government shutdown restricting official export data, Reuters analysts project robust weekly soybean sales of 0.6-1.6 MMT. Looking ahead, Rabobank forecasts a significant increase in Brazilian soybean production to 177 MMT for 2025/26, driven by a 2% rise in planted acreage.
Soybean futures concluded Wednesday's trading session largely unchanged, yet the November contract maintained an elevated October average of $10.29, reflecting recent market rallies. This stability is partly attributed to rumored Chinese purchases of at least 180,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans, indicating sustained demand ahead of the anticipated Trump/Xi meeting. The cmdtyView national average Cash Bean price also saw a modest increase of 2 1/4 cents, reaching $10.13 1/2. Official market transparency is currently constrained by a government shutdown, which has restricted the release of the FAS weekly Export Sales report. Despite this data limitation, a Reuters survey of analysts projects robust weekly soybean sales between 0.6-1.6 MMT for the week ending October 23rd, suggesting continued healthy export activity. This analyst consensus provides an interim gauge of demand in the absence of official figures. Looking ahead, Rabobank forecasts a significant increase in 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production, estimating a total of 177 MMT. This substantial supply expansion is driven by a projected 2% rise in planted acreage to 48.8 million hectares. Such a considerable increase in global supply from a major producer could introduce long-term bearish pressure on soybean prices, potentially counteracting short-term demand-side support.
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