Where Will Cameco (CCJ) Stock Be in 10 Years?

Cameco has rebounded materially as uranium spot prices recovered to roughly $94/lb, helping revenue double from $1.5 billion in 2021 to $3.1 billion in 2024 and restoring profitability in 2022–2024; the company mined about 17% of global uranium in 2024 and its stock is up over 620% in the past five years. Strategic moves—raising its stake in Global Laser Enrichment to 49% and taking a 49% position in Westinghouse via a Brookfield partnership—position Cameco to vertically integrate into enrichment and nuclear infrastructure as the IAEA projects a 2.6x increase in global nuclear capacity by 2050. Near-term production bottlenecks and price volatility are acknowledged, but the article presents a favorable long-term growth and M&A-driven transformation thesis for investors.

Analysis

Market structure: Rising spot uranium (~$94/lb) and IAEA 2.6x capacity thesis favor vertically integrated suppliers (CCJ/CCJ.TO) and enrichment/engineering owners (Westinghouse via BAM). Winners: large, low-cost producers (Cameco CCJ, Kazatomprom NATK.Y) and service integrators; losers: high-cost juniors and capital-starved explorers. If spot breaches $100/lb for 3+ months, expect accelerated mine restarts and multi-year capex cycles that shift bargaining power back to miners versus utilities.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory moratoria, geopolitical export curbs from Kazakhstan, or a major reactor incident that triggers multiyear demand destruction; each could knock 30–60% off CCJ in severe scenarios. Near-term (days) volatility will track spot and contract news; medium-term (3–12 months) depends on announced long-term offtake contracts and Westinghouse reactor orders; long-term (3–10+ years) hinges on actual reactor builds versus announced intentions and uranium supply additions.

Trade implications: Prime direct play is CCJ equity and BAM for Westinghouse exposure; hedge with shorts in junior explorers (Denison DNN, UEX) or URA-sized short. Use 9–18 month call spreads on CCJ to capture upside while capping premium risk; size 2–4% notional longs with 1–2% hedges to manage idiosyncratic execution risk.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates capex-driven oversupply risk by 2030—historical commodity supercycles show price drawdowns when marginal supply comes online. Also, Cameco’s move downstream (enrichment, Westinghouse) may compress margins and increase working capital needs—valuation should price integration execution risk, not just uranium spot exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 3% portfolio long in Cameco (CCJ) now; add another 2% if uranium spot sustains >$100/lb for 90 days or if CCJ pulls back ≥15% from today; stop-loss initial at -30% from entry to control tail loss.
• Buy a defined-risk options spread on CCJ: purchase 12–18 month LEAP calls ~20% OTM and sell 30–40% OTM (size = 1% portfolio) to capture upside if the nuclear supercycle accelerates while limiting premium decay.
• Initiate a 1–2% short or underweight in junior uranium explorers (examples: DNN, UEX) or short URA via inverse ETF exposure to hedge financing/dilution and execution risk across the sector over the next 6–18 months.
• Acquire 1–2% long in Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) as a play on Westinghouse upside tied to new build and servicing contracts; increase allocation by 1% if Westinghouse secures >$2bn in new orders within 12 months.