These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks Investment Research details its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool, which forecasts earnings surprises by comparing the most recent analyst estimate to the consensus. This methodology, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better, has historically identified stocks likely to beat earnings 70% of the time, generating an average annual return of 28.3% over a 10-year period. The analysis points to S&P Global (SPGI) with a +2.64% ESP and MSCI (MSCI) with a +0.58% ESP as current finance sector candidates positioned for potential positive earnings surprises in their upcoming reports.

Analysis

The analysis highlights S&P Global (SPGI) and MSCI Inc. (MSCI) as potential candidates for positive earnings surprises based on the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model, a quantitative tool that focuses on recent analyst estimate revisions. According to the provided backtest, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better has historically led to a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, with the strategy yielding an average annual return of 28.3%. S&P Global, reporting on October 23, 2025, exhibits a +2.64% ESP, derived from a Most Accurate Estimate of $4.39 versus a consensus of $4.28. MSCI, which reports on November 4, 2025, has a more modest but still positive ESP of +0.58%, with its Most Accurate Estimate at $4.40 against a $4.38 consensus. While both stocks currently hold a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line market performance, the positive ESP metric signals a potential short-term bullish catalyst tied to their upcoming earnings announcements.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors seeking short-term, catalyst-driven trades could consider tactical bullish positions in SPGI and MSCI ahead of their earnings reports to capitalize on the high probability of a positive surprise indicated by the ESP model.
• The neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for both companies suggests that any potential upside may be a short-term event, so positions should be managed with the expectation of in-line market performance over the medium term.
• Given S&P Global's significantly higher ESP of +2.64% compared to MSCI's +0.58%, it presents a mechanically stronger signal for an earnings beat and could be prioritized by traders employing this specific strategy.