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Hogs Ease Back on Thursday

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Hogs Ease Back on Thursday

Lean hog futures experienced broad declines on Thursday, with contracts falling between 95 cents and $1.625, as the USDA national base hog price decreased $1.69 to $84.31 and the CME Lean Hog Index dropped 4 cents to $90.86. This market weakness, which also included a 26-cent reduction in the pork carcass cutout value, occurred despite an increase in federally inspected hog slaughter to 1.951 million head for the week, indicating continued bearish sentiment in the hog market.

Analysis

Lean hog futures experienced significant declines on Thursday, with contracts falling between 95 cents and $1.625. This bearish sentiment was reflected in the USDA national base hog price, which decreased $1.69 to $84.31, and the CME Lean Hog Index, which dropped 4 cents to $90.86. These movements indicate a broad-based weakening in hog prices. Further illustrating the market's downturn, the USDA's pork carcass cutout value fell 26 cents to $97.18 per cwt, with the belly primal being the sole component to report a gain. This widespread price depreciation suggests a fundamental shift in demand or supply dynamics impacting most pork products. The consistent downward trend across multiple futures contracts reinforces this negative outlook. Despite increased supply, with federally inspected hog slaughter reaching 1.951 million head for the week—10,000 head above last week and 3,396 head above last year—prices continued to fall. This suggests that current supply levels are not the primary driver of the price decline, or that demand weakness is outweighing supply dynamics. The persistent price erosion amidst higher slaughter points to underlying bearish pressures.

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