Aftermath Silver files technical report featuring updated mineral resource estimate for Berenguela project

Aftermath Silver filed an NI 43-101 technical report updating the Berenguela MRE (cut-off NSR US$137.40) and outlining work toward a preliminary feasibility study in 2026, including metallurgical flowsheet development and assessment of battery‑grade manganese sulphate. Measured resources (as of 30 Nov 2025) are 8.49 Mt at 101 g/t Ag, 8.97% Mn, 0.89% Cu and 0.32% Zn; indicated are 43.06 Mt at 68.5 g/t Ag, 5.04% Mn, 0.58% Cu and 0.33% Zn (M+I 51.55 Mt); inferred 14.33 Mt. Contained metal in M+I: ~122.5 Moz Ag, 2.93 Mt Mn, 717.1 Mlbs Cu and 372.4 Mlbs Zn; inferred: ~22 Moz Ag, 0.47 Mt Mn, 118.4 Mlbs Cu and 80 Mlbs Zn; the model accounts for historical depletion and estimates value contribution ~75% Mn, 13% Ag, 11% Cu, 2% Zn.

Analysis

Market Structure: Aftermath’s updated MRE materially reweights Berenguela toward manganese (≈75% of NSR), creating a potential new upstream source for battery-grade Mn inputs. Short-term winners are AAGFF equity and specialty processors/EV cathode makers seeking diversified Mn supply; near-term losers are small silver-focused juniors (minimal new silver supply impact). Because production is contingent on metallurgical success and permitting, immediate market share shifts are negligible but the project can exert downward pressure on long-run battery-grade Mn premiums if it reaches commercial scale (2–5 year horizon).

Risk Assessment: Key tail risks are Peruvian permitting/social conflict, failure to achieve >80–90% Mn recovery to MnSO4, and CAPEX inflation pushing project NPV negative; each could wipe out >70% of equity value. Immediate (days–weeks) effects should be muted; watch PFS milestones through 2026 (quarterly) for reassessment; long-term (2–5 years) is where value crystallizes. Hidden dependencies include off-take/financing availability, water/energy infrastructure, and global MnSO4 pricing tied to EV policy shifts in China/EU.

Trade Implications: Direct play: tactically sized long in AAGFF to capture re‑rating on successful MnSO4 flowsheet and PFS (see decisions). Pair trades: long AAGFF vs short silver-miner ETF (SIL) isolates manganese optionality. Use options to express base‑metals upside via call spreads on XME or equivalent (9–12 month expiries) given likely event-driven volatility around the PFS.

Contrarian Angles: Consensus will emphasize silver/copper but understates Mn value; the market may underprice the project’s battery-metal optionality pre‑PFS. Conversely, metallurgy and social/regulatory execution risk historically derate similar polymetallic projects (recovery shortfalls, complex concentrate markets). Watch for unexpected permit delays or metallurgical test failures—these are asymmetric downside events that can be anticipated and hedged.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a staged long position in AAGFF (OTCQX:AAGFF) equal to 2% of portfolio: deploy 50% now, 25% on announcement of bench-scale MnSO4 flowsheet showing >=80% Mn recovery, 25% on PFS showing positive after‑tax NPV at 8%. Use a hard stop-loss at -35% and take-profit at +100% within 12–24 months.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long AAGFF (dollar neutral) and short Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) 1:1 to isolate manganese upside. Rebalance monthly and close if SIL outperforms AAGFF by 20% or AAGFF rises +100%.
• Buy a low-cost directional call spread on the Metals & Mining ETF (XME): 9–12 month expiry, buy a 20% OTM call and sell a 40% OTM call, position size 0.5–1% of portfolio to express base-metal positive PFS/macro risk with defined downside.
• Reduce gross exposure to pure silver juniors by 20–30% within 30 days and reallocate into battery-materials or manganese processing names (or AAGFF) where exposure to MnSO4 economics is explicit; revisit allocation after PFS or any MnSO4 off‑take announcements.