USDA Slightly Lowers Corn, Soybean Yields and Production

The USDA's November Crop Production and WASDE reports, the first since the government shutdown, presented a mixed outlook for agricultural commodities. U.S. corn yields were slightly lowered to 186 bpa and production to 16.75 billion bushels, with ending stocks raised to 2.154 billion bushels for the 2025-26 crop year, indicating a bearish sentiment. Soybean yields also saw a slight reduction to 53 bpa and production to 4.253 billion bushels, with 2025-26 ending stocks lowered to 290 million bushels, perceived as neutral to slightly bullish. Wheat ending stocks increased to 901 million bushels, contributing to a slightly bearish view. Furthermore, beef and pork production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 were lowered due to anticipated slower slaughter speeds and lighter inventories, leading to reduced price expectations for steers and hogs.

Analysis

The USDA's November Crop Production and WASDE reports, the first since the government shutdown, delivered a mixed outlook for key agricultural commodities. U.S. corn yields were slightly lowered to 186 bushels per acre and production to 16.75 billion bushels for 2025-26, while soybean yields also saw a minor decrease to 53 bpa and production to 4.253 billion bushels.

For corn, 2025-26 ending stocks were raised by 44 million bushels to 2.154 billion bushels, contributing to a bearish U.S. sentiment despite a 10-cent increase in the farmgate price to $4 per bushel. Conversely, soybean ending stocks for 2025-26 were lowered to 290 million bushels, supporting a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, alongside a 50-cent increase in the farmgate price to $10.50 per bushel.

U.S. wheat ending stocks increased to 901 million bushels, leading to a slightly bearish assessment, with the farmgate price decreasing to $5.00 per bushel. The livestock sector faced less supportive news, with 2025 and 2026 beef production forecasts lowered by 70 million and 100 million pounds respectively, and pork production also reduced.

These production adjustments led to reduced price expectations for steers, with Q4 2025 prices down $10 to $234, and for hogs, with Q4 2025 prices down $3 to $66. The overall sentiment, particularly concerning livestock and increased U.S. corn stocks, suggests a mildly negative outlook for certain agricultural futures, aligning with the -0.25 sentiment score.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor corn and wheat futures for potential downside given increased U.S. ending stocks and bearish sentiment, especially considering the raised farmgate price for corn may not fully offset supply pressures.
• Consider long positions or hedging strategies in soybean futures, as lowered ending stocks and an increased farmgate price suggest a more favorable supply/demand balance.
• Evaluate positions in livestock-related equities or futures, as reduced production forecasts and lower price expectations for cattle and hogs indicate potential headwinds for the meat processing and agricultural input sectors.
• Pay close attention to global supply chain dynamics, particularly for wheat, where increased international production could further pressure U.S. prices despite domestic stock adjustments.