Invitation to presentation of Year-End Report 2025

Nobia will publish its Year‑End Report 2025 on Thursday, February 5 at 08:30 CET and host a webcasted telephone conference at 10:00 CET where CEO Kristoffer Ljungfelt and interim CFO Robert Belkic will present results and take questions. Presentation materials will be available at www.nobia.com/ir and the group notes approximately 4,000 employees and net sales of about SEK 11 billion; the share is listed on Nasdaq Stockholm under ticker NOBI. Contact details and registration links for the call are provided for investors and analysts.

Analysis

Market structure: Nobia (NOBI) is a potential winner if the Feb 5 year-end report shows continued volume resilience or margin recovery; scale brands (Nobia, Magnet, Marbodal) can take share from small independents that lack purchasing leverage. Losers would be niche bespoke manufacturers and upstream commodity-exposed suppliers if Nobia squeezes costs further; a +100–200bp margin beat would likely force peers to price more competitively. Cross-asset: a positive print should tighten Swedish corporate spreads modestly and support SEK vs EUR/GBP by 0.5–1% in the following week; equity options IV will spike ahead of the release and collapse after the call.

Risk assessment: Immediate risk (days) is trading volatility around Feb 5 and an interim CFO narrative that increases perceived governance risk; short-term (weeks) risk is a demand miss driven by weak UK housing or Swedish consumer confidence, long-term (quarters) is cyclical housing downturn. Tail scenarios: >10% organic sales decline, >200bp margin compression, or a major product recall would be high-impact; hidden deps include supplier concentration, inventory write-down risk and currency (SEK/GBP) pass-through. Catalysts to watch: Feb 5 results, UK housing prints (monthly), Swedish retail sales and input-cost inflation data over next 30–90 days.

Trade implications: Tactical trades: buy exposure to NOBI before Feb 5 if liquidity allows but size-weighted; use defined-risk options to limit downside. Relative-value: long NOBI vs short Kingfisher (KGF.L) to isolate kitchen-manufacturing execution vs broad DIY retail. Sector: overweight Scandinavian home furnishings/consumer discretionary and trim cyclical retail laggards; underweight commodity-linked suppliers.

Contrarian angles: The market may over-penalize management changes—an interim CFO is not inherently negative if results and cash flow are stable; consensus may underappreciate branded kitchens’ pricing stickiness in renovation cycles. Historical parallel: branded home-improvement names have rallied 15–30% after modest beats while peers stayed flat. Watch for post-report IV crush and illiquidity that can exaggerate moves—defined-risk trades preferred.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in NOBI ahead of the Feb 5 report, with a hard stop-loss at -8% and add-to-size to 4–5% only if organic sales > +3% y/y and EBIT margin expands >100bp vs prior year within 48 hours of the release.
• Implement a defined-risk options trade: buy a Feb–Mar 2026 call spread on NOBI (buy ATM, sell 15–20% OTM) sized to 1% portfolio to capture upside from a positive report while capping premium outlay; close within 3 trading days post-release to avoid IV decay.
• Run a 1:1 pair trade long NOBI / short Kingfisher (KGF.L) sized at 1–2% net exposure to express conviction in kitchen-brand execution vs broad DIY risk; rebalance or exit if the pair diverges >10% in 30 days.
• Reduce exposure by 50% to small-cap European kitchen/component suppliers if Nobia reports margin improvement >150bp, as consolidation and pricing pressure will accelerate; re-evaluate within 60 days using supplier order/receivable data.