Consulate, CIA station and military base: Iran attacks US assets in Middle East

Market Sentiment

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Lockheed Martin (LMT) and 1.5–2% long in Northrop Grumman (NOC); target +12–18% in 3–6 months, set stop-loss at -8% and trim half at +10%.
• Add a 2% tactical long in XLE or 1–2 long CL 3-month call spread (e.g., buy 3-month ATM call, sell +15% strike) to express oil upside; risk defined, take profits if Brent rises >20% or oil volatility falls 30% from peak.
• Establish a 1.5% long position in GLD (physical ETF) or buy 3-month OTM calls equal to 1% notional as asymmetric insurance; exit if gold falls >5% from entry or geopolitical premium collapses over five trading days.
• Short 1.5–2% position in JETS ETF (airline travel) and reduce direct Gulf/EM equity exposure by 30% vs. benchmark; cover shorts if JETS declines >15% or EM sovereign spreads tighten by >50bps from recent peaks within 30 days.
• Reduce EM local-currency sovereign exposure by 30% and increase USD cash/short-term Treasuries by 3–5% of portfolio; re-enter EM on two triggers: (A) 10–20% rally in EM equities with CDS spreads compressing >50bps, or (B) five consecutive trading days of confirmed de-escalation signals from US/Iran diplomatic channels.