ZINZINO AB (PUBL): PRELIMINARY SALES REPORT 2025

Zinzino reported strong preliminary sales for 2025 with Group revenues up 51% year‑on‑year to SEK 3,344.5m and Q4 revenue up 46% to SEK 1,042.4m; Zinzino sales markets contributed SEK 1,032.3m in Q4 (up 50%) and December revenue for Zinzino markets rose 35% to SEK 334.4m. Regional performance was driven by outsized growth in North America (YTD +172% to SEK 545.7m) and Asia‑Pacific (YTD +254% to SEK 299.4m), while Faun Pharma was a drag with external sales down to SEK 2.9m in December and -51% YTD. The figures imply strong top‑line acceleration across the direct‑sales health/nutrition business, materially improving company fundamentals heading into reporting season.

Analysis

Market structure: Zinzino’s 51% YTD revenue growth and outsized gains in North America (+172% YTD) and Asia‑Pacific (+254% YTD) indicate rapid market-share capture in the direct‑sales health‑tech niche. Winners are Zinzino, its distributor network, third‑party labs and logistics providers in high‑growth regions; losers include legacy retail supplement channels and the Group’s Faun Pharma unit (‑51% YTD), which appears noncore. The scale lift improves pricing power and potential gross‑margin leverage if COGS are stable, pressuring incumbents who lack test‑driven personalization.

Risk assessment: Key tail risks are regulatory reclassification of products (EU/FDA/FTC scrutiny), distributor churn causing rapid top‑line reversals, and fulfillment/QC failures that can amplify reputational damage. Near term (days–weeks) expect volatility around official quarterly release and any distributor KPIs; medium term (3–12 months) hinge on repeatable retention and gross margin trends; long term (>12 months) depends on regulatory pathway and sustainable CAC economics. Hidden dependency: growth concentrated in a few regions — a slowdown in NA or APAC would materially cut forward revenue given their share of incremental growth.

Trade implications: Direct long exposure to Zinzino (Nasdaq First North-listed Zinzino) is the primary play: establish a 2–3% portfolio position, target +40–60% return in 6–12 months if quarterly growth persists, stop‑loss at 12%. Implement a relative trade by shorting Herbalife (HLF) sized ~1.5% to hedge MLM/MLM‑channel risk while capturing share shift. Where liquid, use 3–6 month call spreads (debit) sized 0.5–1% notional to cap premium outlay; if options illiquid, pair equity long with 3‑month protective puts 10–12% OTM.

Contrarian angles: Consensus likely underestimates reversibility — hypergrowth can be promotional/FX‑driven or channel‑specific and inflate one‑off AR or returns; Faun Pharma’s decline warns execution heterogeneity. Historical parallels (direct‑to‑consumer supplement booms) show fast saturation and subsequent margin compression; if monthly active distributor growth <20% in NA/APAC over next two quarters, the market should materially reprice downside.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Zinzino (Nasdaq First North-listed Zinzino) within 5 trading days; target +40–60% upside over 6–12 months if next quarterly report confirms >40% sequential YTD growth in core regions; enforce a hard stop‑loss at 12%.
• Construct a pair trade: long Zinzino 2.0% vs short Herbalife (HLF) 1.5% to capture relative share gains in personalised nutrition and hedge MLM/channel risk; rebalance after each quarterly release.
• If options are liquid, buy a 3–6 month call spread on Zinzino sized 0.5–1.0% of portfolio (debit spread ~25%/50% OTM strikes if available); if illiquid, buy the stock and hedge with 3‑month protective puts 10–12% OTM to limit tail risk.
• Set monitoring triggers: if monthly active distributor growth in North America or Asia‑Pacific falls below 20% for two consecutive months, or if any regulatory body (EFSA/FDA/FTC) opens formal inquiries within 30–90 days, reduce net exposure to <=0.5% and re-evaluate thesis.