IPO Market Resilient Despite Dip in IPOs

Nasdaq's H1 2025 IPO activity demonstrated unexpected strength despite initial market volatility and a downturn in its IPO Pulses. The U.S. market recorded 108 operating company IPOs, the third strongest first half in a decade, with capital raised increasing 40% year-over-year to $27 billion. Concurrently, Nasdaq Stockholm saw a remarkable 500%+ year-over-year surge in capital raised to €1.9 billion, even as overall European IPO capital declined. While both U.S. and Stockholm IPO Pulses hit 1.5-year lows in April, their subsequent recovery in May and June suggests that the slowdown in IPO counts may be brief, supported by broad sector participation and a rebound in SPAC activity.

Analysis

Despite leading indicators like the Nasdaq IPO Pulse signaling a downturn and hitting a 1.5-year low in April, the IPO market in both the U.S. and Stockholm demonstrated significant underlying strength in the first half of 2025. The U.S. market recorded 108 operating company IPOs, marking the third-strongest first half in the last decade, with capital raised increasing 40% year-over-year to $27 billion. This strength was broad-based, spanning 10 of 11 sectors and including a notable resurgence in SPACs, with 62 listings. Similarly, Nasdaq Stockholm starkly outperformed the broader European market; while European IPO capital raised fell 65%, Stockholm's surged over 500% YoY to €1.9 billion, hosting three of Europe's top five IPOs. The subsequent recovery of both the U.S. and Stockholm IPO Pulses in May and June suggests the initial downturn, exacerbated by tariff concerns, may be short-lived, signaling a potentially robust environment for new listings ahead, particularly for Nasdaq, which secured an 80%+ win rate in the U.S.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should recognize the disconnect between the earlier bearish IPO Pulse signals and the robust underlying activity, particularly the strong year-over-year growth in capital raised, suggesting market health is better than headline volatility implies.
• The data presents a strong bullish case for Nasdaq, Inc. (NDAQ) due to its dominant 80%+ IPO win rate in the U.S. and its significant outperformance in the contracting European market, indicating superior competitive positioning.
• Given the two-month rebound in the U.S. and Stockholm IPO Pulses, investors should anticipate a potential acceleration in IPO activity for the second half of the year, creating opportunities in newly public companies and favorable exit conditions for private equity holdings.
• The resurgence in SPAC activity, with more listings in H1 2025 than in all of 2023 or 2024, warrants renewed attention to this segment as a potential source of M&A and public market entry for private companies.