Amgen's Q3 Earnings & Sales Beat, 2025 Outlook Raised, Stock Up

Amgen (AMGN) reported robust third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings of $5.64 per share and revenues of $9.6 billion, both surpassing analyst expectations, driven by a 12% year-over-year revenue increase from strong volume growth in key products like Repatha, Evenity, and Tezspire, alongside a 52% surge in biosimilar sales. The company subsequently raised its 2025 revenue and EPS guidance, reflecting optimism despite anticipated sales erosion from biosimilar competition for Prolia and Xgeva following 2025 patent expirations. Significant R&D investment is focused on its late-stage obesity drug candidate, MariTide, which is progressing through Phase III trials and aims to differentiate with a less frequent dosing schedule than current market leaders.

Analysis

Amgen reported a strong third quarter, with adjusted earnings of $5.64 per share and total revenues of $9.6 billion, both surpassing Zacks Consensus Estimates of $5.00 and $8.9 billion respectively. Revenue growth of 12% year-over-year was primarily volume-driven, with key products like Repatha (+40%), Evenity (+36%), and Tezspire (+40%) exhibiting robust double-digit sales increases, alongside a significant 52% surge in biosimilar portfolio sales to $775 million.

The company subsequently raised its 2025 revenue guidance to $35.8-$36.6 billion and adjusted EPS to $20.60-$21.40, marking the second upward revision this year, reflecting confidence in its product portfolio and pipeline. A substantial 31% increase in R&D expenses to $1.89 billion underscores Amgen's commitment to its late-stage pipeline, particularly the differentiated obesity candidate MariTide, which is progressing through six global Phase III studies and has shown promising efficacy with monthly dosing.

Despite the positive performance, Amgen faces headwinds from the impending patent expirations for best-selling drugs Prolia and Xgeva in 2025, which are expected to lead to significant sales erosion due to biosimilar competition. Continued pricing pressure across its drug portfolio also partially offsets volume growth. However, the market reacted positively to the "beat and raise" quarter, with Amgen's shares rising 2% in after-hours trading and outperforming the industry year-to-date.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should evaluate Amgen's sustained volume-driven growth in key products and the increasing contribution from biosimilars against the anticipated sales erosion from Prolia and Xgeva patent expirations in 2025.
• Closely monitor the progress and differentiation of Amgen's obesity candidate, MariTide, through its ongoing Phase III trials, as it represents a significant potential growth driver in a competitive market.
• Assess the company's ability to manage operating costs and pricing pressures while continuing substantial R&D investments, particularly as biosimilar competition for established drugs intensifies.