Form 144 On Holding AG For: 6 April

Risk disclosure: Trading financial instruments and cryptocurrencies carries high risk, including the possibility of losing some or all invested capital and increased exposure when trading on margin. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and platform data may not be real-time or accurate; Fusion Media disclaims liability for losses and restricts use of its data. Investors should fully understand risks and costs, consider objectives and experience, and seek professional advice before trading.

Analysis

The generic risk/disclaimer language is itself a signal: markets that rely on non-standardized price feeds and opaque liquidity providers are one operational shock away from self-reinforcing deleveraging. A bad/inaccurate midprice can widen effective funding spreads by multiple 100s of bps in minutes, triggering cascade liquidations on retail margin stacks and creating arbitrage windows that persist for hours-to-days rather than seconds.

Winners from a flight-to-quality are the regulated custodians, exchange-cleared infrastructure and independent oracle networks — they capture recurring custody and data fees that scale with assets under custody (AUC) and reduce counterparty haircuts; losers are thinly capitalized retail platforms, small-market makers and DeFi protocols that depend on single or unaudited feeds. Second-order: large banks and clearinghouses will see a modest but durable revenue tail from onboarding institutional crypto flows (0.5–1.5% of incremental AUC in fee revenue annually), which can re-rate their div. yield/earnings multiple over 12–36 months as crypto becomes a fixed-income like fee stream.

Tail risks sit in days-to-weeks (price-feed or exchange outage causing >20% intraday swings) and months (regulatory enforcement that pauses bank on‑boarding or stablecoin runs). Reversal catalysts include rapid adoption of standardized, exchange-verified consolidated feeds and market-maker behavioral changes (e.g., posting deeper two-sided markets), which would compress spreads and push flows back to regulated venues; absent those, expect recurring episodic volatility and premium for custody/clearance to persist for years.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long COIN (Coinbase) 3–6 month call spread (buy a 1x ATM call, sell an OTM call ~25–35% out) sized for 1–2% portfolio risk. Rationale: capture re-rating from a durable shift into regulated, audited venues if episodic pricing shocks persist; target 2.5x premium if crypto trading volumes/flows re-center to regulated venues, stop-loss = total premium paid.
• Buy CME Group (CME) 6–12 month calls (outright or call ratio spread) to play structural shift into exchange-cleared derivatives and higher clearing fees. Risk: option premium; reward: 2–4x if institutional derivatives open interest grows by 20–40% over 6–12 months after another disruptive price-feed event.
• Core long position in oracle/infrastructure exposure (CHAINLINK token - LINK or equity proxy where available) with 6–12 month horizon, accumulate on 20–40% pullbacks. Rationale: independent, multi-source oracles reduce single-feed tail risk and will be paid by both CeFi and DeFi; target +100% on adoption-driven revenue accruals, risk = token volatility / 30% drawdown.
• Relative-value: long regulated custody/clearing (BNY Mellon - BK) 12–36 months vs short a high-fee retail crypto brokerage equity (size small, use options to cap risk). Rationale: structural fee migration to banks/clearing houses; target asymmetric payoff where custody wins capture recurring 50–150 bps on new AUC while speculative brokers lose market share if operational trust erodes.