Pre-Market Earnings Report for February 11, 2026 : MCD, TMUS, SHOP, NTES, VRT, HLT, MLM, WAB, KHC, GFS, SW, HUM

Ahead of pre-market open on 02/11/2026, a diverse group of large-cap companies will report Q4/2025 results with mixed analyst expectations: McDonald's consensus EPS $3.04 (up 7.42% YoY), T-Mobile $2.03 (down 21.01% YoY), Shopify $0.41 (up 20.59% YoY), Hilton $2.00 (up 13.64% YoY) and Humana at -$4.01 (down 85.65% YoY). Zacks P/E comparisons show wide valuation dispersion (e.g., MCD 26.86, TMUS 19.73, HUM 11.10), suggesting these previews are likely to produce stock-specific moves at the open rather than broad market directional impact.

Analysis

Market structure: Earnings skew favors select cyclicals and tech infra (VRT, HLT, SHOP) and penalizes healthcare/consumer staples near-term (HUM, KHC). VRT’s consensus +30% EPS and perfect beat record imply increasing pricing power for data-center infrastructure; HLT’s +13.6% EPS points to sustained travel demand, which should shift capex and labor demand into hospitality and materials chains over next 2–6 quarters. TMUS’s -21% EPS guide risk signals wireless ARPU pressure, which could compress carrier margins and capex cadence.

Risk assessment: Immediate risk is earnings-driven volatility on 02/11/2026 (days); medium-term risks (weeks–months) include guidance resets and margin erosion from commodity/inflation pass-through (MLM, GFS). Tail risks: regulatory shocks (telecom/healthcare), a sharp consumer demand reversal that would hit HLT/MCD, or a semiconductor cyclical downturn that would impair GFS — each can move equity prices 10–30% and credit spreads 20–80bp. Hidden dependencies include FX exposure for NTES and supply-chain lead times for VRT/MLM.

Trade implications: Favor concentrated, risk-sized longs in VRT (2–3% position) and HLT (1–2%) into earnings/guidance with 4–6% hard stops; buy 30–60 DTE call spreads on VRT (debit) sized 0.5–1% notional to capture upside if beat. Hedge HUM tail risk by buying 3–6 week ATM put spreads (0.5–1% notional) or a long strangle if IV < forward realized vol +20%; consider pair trade long HLT (2%) / short KHC (1–1.5%) to play rotation into cyclicals. Post-earnings, selectively sell premium on TMUS or SHOP if IV spikes >40% above historical 90-day IV.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice KHC’s resilience — if KHC misses but maintains guidance, a 10–15% selloff could be a buy given P/E ~9.7; plan size-limited buys on weakness. SHOP’s 108x P/E implies any guidance softness will be punished; downside >15% is plausible and could present a long-term entry after margin-of-safety rebuild. Historical parallel: hospitality rebounds after demand shocks (post‑COVID) suggest HLT moves have multi-quarter persistence; unintended consequence is wage inflation pressuring margins later, so scale exposure accordingly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long equity position in Vertiv (VRT) ahead of 02/11/2026 earnings, hedge with a 30–60 DTE call spread sized 0.5–1% notional, and place a 4–6% trailing stop; thesis: consensus +30% EPS and consistent beats imply upside to guidance.
• Buy a 1–2% long position in Hilton (HLT) and/or 30–60 DTE call spreads (0.5% notional) to play travel demand; if shares gap >10% up on results, trim 50% and move stop to breakeven.
• Protect against healthcare shock in Humana (HUM) by buying a 3–6 week ATM put spread sized 0.5–1% notional ahead of earnings; if IV >40% post-release, convert to a strangle to monetize skew.
• Implement a pair trade: long HLT (2%) / short KHC (1–1.5%) to play rotation into cyclicals and away from defensive staples; tighten P/L if CPI or consumer confidence falls >1 percentage point month-over-month.
• If TMUS or SHOP IV spikes >40% vs 90-day average after earnings, consider selling short-dated (7–21 DTE) iron condors sized 0.5–1% notional to harvest mean-reversion in implied volatility; avoid naked exposure if implied move >10%.