STOREBRAND ASA: Capital Markets Day 2025

At its 2025 Capital Markets Day Storebrand raised its near-term financial targets, now aiming for a return on equity of 17% and a Group result of NOK 7 billion by 2028 (up from a prior NOK 5 billion 2025 target), with an ambition for double-digit annual dividend growth through 2028 and planned share buybacks of NOK 2 billion in 2026 and NOK 1.5 billion annually thereafter, contributing to a goal of distributing more than NOK 12 billion by end-2030; the group also targets ROE above 20% toward 2035. The strategy emphasizes shifting the balance sheet toward capital-light businesses and accelerated digitalisation (including AI) to drive market share, with business-level goals of >10% annual earnings growth in asset management, ~10% in unit-linked, 5–10% annual retail lending growth with a 1.2% NIM, and >10% insurance premium growth with a combined ratio ≤90%. Storebrand, which manages NOK 1,561 billion and serves c.2.6m customers, says these moves will sustain higher shareholder distributions and improved profitability while maintaining its sustainability focus, positioning the group to capture demographic and individualisation-driven growth across Nordic savings and insurance markets.

Analysis

Storebrand used its 2025 Capital Markets Day to raise near-term financial targets, increasing target return on equity from 14% to 17% for 2028 and lifting the Group result target to NOK 7 billion in 2028 (up from a prior NOK 5 billion target for 2025). Management announced an ambition for double-digit annual dividend growth through 2028 and a formal buyback plan of NOK 2 billion in 2026 followed by NOK 1.5 billion annually thereafter, contributing to a stated ambition to distribute more than NOK 12 billion by end-2030.

Operational ambitions supporting the targets include annual earnings growth in asset management of >10%, ~10% in unit-linked, retail lending growth of 5–10% with a 1.2% net interest margin, and insurance premium growth >10% with a combined ratio of 90% or lower. The strategy emphasizes a structural shift toward capital-light businesses, accelerated digitalisation (including AI) and scaling Group synergies; Storebrand reports NOK 1,561 billion in assets under management and ~2.6 million customers, providing scale for execution.

The plan implies materially higher shareholder returns and an ROE ambition above 20% toward 2035, but realization depends on execution and supportive macro conditions cited by management. Key execution risks are failing to achieve the business-area growth and margin targets, slower transition to capital-light revenues, or delays in buybacks/dividend acceleration; investors should focus on quarterly progress against the NOK 7 billion trajectory and the specified KPIs as the primary read-throughs of credibility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider modestly increasing exposure to Storebrand to capture upside from higher ROE guidance and explicit buyback/dividend plans, conditional on confirming execution in upcoming quarters
• Monitor quarterly KPIs closely — Group result versus the NOK 7 billion path, ROE progression, execution of the NOK 2bn/1.5bn buybacks, dividend growth, asset-management earnings growth, retail NIM and insurance combined ratio — as triggers to add or reduce exposure
• Be prepared to trim or hedge positions if quarterly updates show persistent slippage on the capital-light transition, missed growth/margin targets in business areas, or if capital return execution is delayed