Meat snacks have emerged as the clear winner of America’s seismic GLP-1 consumption shift, while popcorn is down bad

Meat snacks have rebranded into a $5.5 billion category (7% of a $74.9 billion savory-snack market) and grew 6.6% in 2025, driven by a nationwide push for protein and demand shifts tied to GLP-1 weight-loss drugs such as Wegovy. Data points include 81% year-over-year volume growth for grass-fed options, Chomps gaining ~822 basis points of market share over three years while Jack Link’s lost 573 bps, and retailers shifting sales from convenience stores to Club channels and e-commerce—trends that favor protein-forward emerging brands and create opportunities for food makers focused on “cost per gram of protein.”

Analysis

Market structure: Winners are club retailers (COST) and e‑commerce (AMZN) that can scale pantry-sized, protein-forward SKUs, niche BFY CPG brands and suppliers of whey/milk proteins and specialty meat co‑packers. Losers are legacy impulse channels (c‑stores) and legacy salty‑snack incumbents losing shelf relevance; pricing power will bifurcate — premium grass‑fed brands can command +10–30% ASPs while cost‑per‑gram‑of‑protein sensitive shoppers will hunt lower‑cost protein formats.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include regulatory/labeling intervention on GLP‑1 promotion, a beef/dairy supply shock (drought, FMD) that spikes input costs, or a rapid plateau in GLP‑1 adoption; any of these would compress CPG margins. Near term (weeks/months) watch club/online inventory and Qs; medium (3–12 months) earnings and wholesale listings; long term (1–3 years) structural diet change supporting sustained protein demand.

Trade implications: Direct plays favor overweight COST (club scale) and AMZN (online bulk/snack penetration) and selective CPGs with BFY brands (Conagra/CAG). Pair trades: long COST vs short legacy snack leader (e.g., PEP) to capture share rotation. Options: use 9–15 month call spreads to express upside and cap premium; monitor commodity signals (whey spot, live cattle futures) to time entry/hedge.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underprices supply constraints — rising whey and cattle costs could flip margin tailwinds into headwinds, creating a short opportunity in badly exposed CPGs if input costs rise >15% YoY. Conversely, adoption could be overestimated (echo low‑carb cycles); set objective thresholds (GLP‑1 Rx growth, retailer velocity) before adding conviction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Costco (COST) within 2–6 weeks to capture club‑driven meat‑snack volume; target +12–18% upside in 6–12 months, place a hard stop at −8% or trim if same‑store sales decelerate to <2% sequentially.
• Add a 1–2% tactical long in Amazon (AMZN) via a 12‑month call‑spread (buy ATM, sell 10–15% OTM) to play online bulk snack growth; unwind if U.S. grocery GMV growth <5% YoY over the next two quarters.
• Buy 1% exposure to Conagra Brands (CAG) or equivalent BFY CPG names (share or 6–12 month calls) to capture M&A/brand momentum; pair with a 0.75–1% short in PepsiCo (PEP) or legacy salty‑snack incumbent to express share rotation.
• Implement commodity/activation hedges: monitor CME live cattle futures and whey spot prices weekly; if cattle futures rise >20% over 90 days or whey spot up >25% YoY, reduce CPG/retail longs by 50% and deploy short commodity futures or long producer hedges.
• Require two catalysts before adding size: (1) three consecutive months of club/online velocity growth >5% MoM for meat snacks, and (2) GLP‑1 prescription growth >5% MoM; if either metric misses over a rolling 60‑day window, cut positions by 30%.