China May EV sales preview: Deutsche Bank expects Nio at 27,000, Tesla 39,000, BYD 390,000

Deutsche Bank analysts project May delivery figures for major EV makers in China, anticipating Nio to reach 27,000 units (up 31% YoY), Tesla to deliver 39,000 units (down 30% YoY), BYD to report wholesale volume of 390,000 units (up 3% sequentially), Xiaomi to deliver 28,000 units (down 2% MoM), Xpeng to deliver 32,000 units (up 215% YoY), Li Auto to deliver 45,000 units (up 28% YoY), Zeekr Group to deliver 43,000 units (up 6% YoY), and Leapmotor to sell 41,000 units (up 150% YoY); order flow trends vary across brands, with some seeing sequential declines while others benefit from new model launches and price adjustments.

Analysis

Deutsche Bank's May electric vehicle delivery preview for the Chinese market indicates a dynamic but varied landscape: Nio Inc. is projected to deliver approximately 27,000 units, a 31% year-on-year increase, driven partly by new model introductions like the ES6 and ET5, although its overall new order flow is expected to decline 8% month-on-month to 33,000 units. In contrast, Tesla's anticipated 39,000 domestic deliveries in China represent a significant 30% year-on-year decrease despite a 32% sequential rise, with new orders also down 3% year-on-year. BYD is forecast to maintain its volume leadership with approximately 390,000 wholesale units, up 3% sequentially, and domestic deliveries of 290,000 units, supported by a 10% month-on-month increase in new orders to 350,000 units, attributed to price discounts. Xiaomi is expected to deliver around 28,000 units, a slight 2% month-on-month dip due to a production pause, but faces a more substantial 36% sequential drop in new orders to 23,000 units, partly as consumers await new models and weigh future NEV policy changes against a seven-month waiting period, though its order backlog remains substantial at 200,000 units. Xpeng projects a strong 215% year-on-year surge to 32,000 units, though down 9% sequentially, with a healthy 10% month-on-month rise in new orders to 34,000 units. Li Auto is set for robust growth, with expected deliveries of 45,000 units (+28% YoY, +33% MoM) and a strong new order intake of 55,000 units, buoyed by recent model refreshes. Zeekr Group anticipates 43,000 total sales (+6% YoY), while Leapmotor targets 41,000 units (+150% YoY), with both showing positive new order trends based on dealer feedback.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the impact of new model launches on Nio's and Li Auto's delivery volumes and order books, as these appear to be key near-term catalysts, aligning with their positive sentiment scores.
• The significant year-on-year decline in Tesla's domestic China sales and order flow warrants close attention, reflecting its negative sentiment and potentially signaling increased competitive pressures or shifting consumer preferences within the premium EV segment.
• Evaluate Xiaomi's capacity to ramp up production to meet its extensive order backlog and assess the sustainability of its demand given the noted decline in new orders and potential policy headwinds, consistent with its negative sentiment.
• Consider the varying growth trajectories and order momentum across EV makers, particularly BYD's volume supported by strategic discounting and the strong performance of Xpeng, Li Auto, and Leapmotor, which show positive sentiment and order growth.
• Assess the export strategies of players like Xpeng, Leapmotor, and Tesla as potential growth diversifiers and indicators of broader market penetration beyond China.