Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 18, 2025

Russian forces are conducting multi-pronged assaults in Donetsk—particularly around Pokrovsk‑Myrnohrad—employing a new operational template of prolonged battlefield air interdiction, infiltration missions, FPV drones and mass small‑group assaults, but ISW reports Moscow has struggled to concentrate forces to complete encirclements and is faltering operationally while commanders have reportedly ordered war crimes. Kyiv reported an ATACMS strike into Russian territory and Russian forces launched four Iskander‑M missiles and roughly 114 drones (about 70 Shahed‑type) on Nov. 15–16 that struck broadcaster facilities, damaged energy and rail infrastructure, prompted rolling blackouts, forced rail rerouting and reduced two nuclear plants’ output per the IAEA. Poland has publicly blamed Russian security services for recent railway sabotage, and Ukraine is deepening defense industrial ties with European partners to mass‑produce interceptor drones—developments that raise escalation risk, sustain European defense demand, and create near‑term energy and logistics disruption in the region.

Analysis

ISW reporting on November 18 documents that Russian forces are employing a new operational template — prolonged battlefield air interdiction (BAI), FPV and fiber-optic sleeper drones, infiltration missions, and mass small-group assaults — while failing to concentrate forces to complete encirclements, notably in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad axis. Geolocated footage indicates recent Russian advances within northeastern Pokrovsk and infiltrations into southern/eastern Siversk, yet Ukrainian units are exploiting vulnerabilities (e.g., threats to the 51st CAA northern shoulder) to blunt encirclement efforts; Kyiv also reported using ATACMS against targets inside Russia on November 18. Russian strategic strikes on November 15–16 used four Iskander-M missiles and approximately 114 drones (about 70 Shahed-type); Ukrainian defenses shot down 101 drones, though four missiles and 13 drones struck 15 locations, damaging broadcaster facilities, rail nodes and energy infrastructure. The strikes precipitated rolling blackouts after attacks on substations (Nov 17–18) and the IAEA noted Khmelnitskyi and Rivne NPPs have operated at reduced capacity since Nov 7 due to power-plant substation damage. Poland publicly attributed November 16 railway sabotage to Russian services, underscoring elevated Phase Zero risks and the political spillover that amplifies European defense demand and near-term energy/transport disruption.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Increase selective exposure to Western and European defense suppliers focused on air-defense, interceptor drones, munitions, and ISR capabilities, and monitor contract awards and production ramps for the Ukroboronprom-Air Team partnership and Octopus serial production
• Hedge short-term exposure to European utilities and rail/transport logistics operators sensitive to missile and drone strikes and rolling blackouts, using options or portfolio protection given documented infrastructure damage on Nov 15–16 and Nov 17–18
• Avoid or reduce exposure to Russia-linked assets and firms vulnerable to sanctions and attribution risks following Polish accusations of sabotage and continued cross-border strikes
• Watch three near-term indicators as trade triggers: large missile/drone salvos (hundreds of platforms), further Ukrainian deep strikes into Russia (ATACMS-level use), and measurable ramp-up in Ukrainian interceptor drone production; adjust positions as these evolve
• Position for a protracted, attritional conflict that sustains defense spending and creates episodic volatility in regional energy and transport sectors, rather than expecting a rapid resolution