JETS: Seasonal Headwinds In Play, Muted 'Big 4' YTD Performances

Major airline stocks, including American Airlines (down over 33%), have largely struggled year-to-date 2025 despite impressive, record-topping TSA checkpoint numbers. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS), while up 16% since October 2024 and trading at a low 11.4x P/E, is approaching key long-term resistance levels ($27-$29). The ETF maintains a "hold" rating, reflecting a decent valuation and bullish technical indicators like a rising 200-day MA, balanced against the unimpressive YTD performance of its largest holdings and inherent cyclical industry risks.

Analysis

There is a notable disconnect between robust air travel demand and the performance of airline equities in 2025. While TSA checkpoint figures are surpassing prior-year record levels, the largest holdings of the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) have struggled significantly; American Airlines (AAL) is down over 33% year-to-date, and Southwest (LUV), United (UAL), and Delta (DAL) are all in negative territory for the year. The JETS ETF itself presents a mixed technical and fundamental picture. On one hand, it trades at an attractive valuation with a low 11.4x price-to-earnings ratio, and recent technical signals are bullish, including a rising 200-day moving average and a 'golden cross' pattern. On the other hand, the ETF is approaching a formidable long-term resistance level at the $27-$29 range, has experienced asset outflows of nearly $200 million over nine months, and faces a historically weak seasonal period through September. The portfolio's composition, with a 24% allocation to ex-U.S. equities and a focus on small and mid-cap companies, adds a layer of diversification but also heightens its exposure to global macroeconomic cycles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider initiating or adding to positions in the U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) on a potential pullback to the technical support range of $22–$23.
• Investors holding JETS should be aware of the significant multi-year technical resistance in the $27-$29 zone, which may cap near-term gains and could be a level to consider trimming positions.
• Weigh the attractive valuation and positive momentum signals against the clear underperformance of the ETF's largest U.S. holdings and historically weak seasonality in August-September, which justifies a neutral stance for the immediate term.
• Monitor the performance of the fund's 24% international allocation, as it could serve as a key diversifier and potential source of outperformance, particularly if the U.S. dollar weakens.