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Israel and Hamas sign ceasefire and hostage deal

Geopolitics & WarElections & Domestic Politics
Israel and Hamas sign ceasefire and hostage deal

Israel and Hamas have signed a ceasefire agreement, brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, which entails the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, alongside humanitarian aid. This initial phase aims to end the two-year conflict, though its full implementation and long-term implications for regional stability, including the future governance of Gaza, remain subject to further negotiations and Israeli government ratification. The deal is hailed as a significant diplomatic achievement, despite ongoing challenges.

Analysis

Bitcoin price today: hovers above $123,000, but stays below record highs By Maayan Lubell and Nidal al-Mughrabi JERUSALEM/CAIRO (Reuters) -Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fire and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s initiative to end the war in Gaza. Israelis and Palestinians alike rejoiced after the deal was announced, the biggest step yet taken to end two years of war in which over 67,000 Palestinians have been killed, and return the last hostages seized by Hamas in the attacks that unleashed it. Officials on both sides confirmed they had signed the deal following indirect talks in the Egyptian beach resort of Sharm el-Sheikh. Under the deal fighting will cease, Israel will partially withdraw from Gaza and Hamas will free all remaining hostages it captured in the attack that precipitated the war, in exchange for hundreds of prisoners held by Israel. Fleets of trucks carrying food and medical aid would be allowed to surge into Gaza to relieve civilians, hundreds of thousands of whom have been sheltering in tents after Israeli forces destroyed their homes and razed entire cities to dust. CEASEFIRE TO TAKE EFFECT AFTER ISRAELI RATIFICATION Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said the ceasefire would take effect once the agreement is ratified by his government, which would convene after a security cabinet meeting later on Thursday. Much could still go wrong. Even after the deal was signed, a Palestinian source said the list of Palestinians to be freed had yet to be finalised. The group is seeking freedom for some of the most prominent Palestinian convicts held in Israeli jails as well as hundreds of people detained during Israel’s assault. Further steps in Trump’s 20-point plan have yet even to be discussed by the sides - including how the shattered Gaza Strip is to be ruled when the fighting ends, and the ultimate fate of Hamas, which has so far rejected Israel’s demands it disarm. But the announcement of an end to fighting and return of hostages was greeted with jubilation in both Gaza and Israel. ’ALL OF THE GAZA STRIP IS HAPPY’ "Thank God for the ceasefire, the end of bloodshed and killing," said Abdul Majeed Abd Rabbo in Khan Younis in southern Gaza. "I am not the only one happy, all of the Gaza Strip is happy, all the Arab people, all of the world is happy with the ceasefire and the end of bloodshed." Einav Zaugauker, whose son Matan is one of the last hostages, rejoiced in Tel Aviv’s so-called Hostages Square, where families of those seized in the Hamas attack that triggered the war two years ago have gathered to demand their return. "I can’t breathe, I can’t breathe, I can’t explain what I’m feeling ... it’s crazy," she said, speaking in the red glow of a celebratory flare. An Israeli government spokeswoman, confirming the deal had been signed, said the ceasefire would go into force within 24 hours of the cabinet meeting. After that 24-hour period, the hostages held in Gaza will be freed within 72 hours, she said. A source briefed on details of the agreement said earlier that Israeli troops would begin pulling back within 24 hours of the deal being signed. An Israeli official said all 20 Israeli hostages still believed to be alive in Gaza after being seized by Hamas in Israel in October 2023, would be released within days. Twenty-six other hostages have been declared dead in absentia, and the fate of two others is unknown. Hamas has indicated that recovering their bodies may take longer. STRIKES CONTINUE With the ceasefire yet to take effect, Israeli strikes on Gaza continued, although at a slower tempo than before the talks began at the start of this week. The Gaza health ministry said at least nine Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire in the past 24 hours, far below the scores killed daily in recent weeks. MAJOR ACHIEVEMENT FOR TRUMP The deal received a support from Arab and Western countries and was widely portrayed as a major diplomatic achievement for Trump, who cast it as a first step towards reconciliation in the wider Middle East. "All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen," he wrote on social media. "BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!" Western and Arab countries were meeting in Paris on Thursday to discuss an international peacekeeping force and reconstruction assistance for Gaza once the fighting stops. Netanyahu called the deal "a diplomatic success and a national and moral victory for the State of Israel". Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel has an interest in expanding the circle of peace and normalisation in the Middle East. But far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition have long opposed any deal with Hamas. One, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, said Hamas must be destroyed once the hostages are returned. He would not vote in favour of the deal, although he stopped short of threatening to bring down the government. More than 67,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, launched after Hamas-led militants stormed through Israeli towns and a music festival on October 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and capturing 251 hostages. 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Our current favorite screen is Under $10/share, which is great for discovering stocks trading under $10 with recent price momentum showing some very impressive returns! Israel and Hamas have formally signed a ceasefire agreement, marking the first phase of a U.S.-brokered initiative to end the two-year conflict in Gaza. The deal stipulates a cessation of hostilities, a partial Israeli withdrawal, the release of 20 remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of humanitarian aid into Gaza. This development follows a conflict that has claimed over 67,000 Palestinian lives. The ceasefire's implementation is contingent upon ratification by the Israeli government, with a security cabinet meeting scheduled for later Thursday. While the agreement has generated jubilation and is viewed as a significant diplomatic achievement for U.S. President Trump, substantial risks remain, including the finalization of the prisoner list and unresolved long-term issues like Gaza's future governance and Hamas's disarmament. Furthermore, far-right members of the Israeli coalition, such as Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, oppose the deal, though they are not expected to destabilize the government. Despite a moderately positive sentiment and optimistic tone surrounding the announcement, Israeli strikes continued at a reduced tempo, with nine Palestinians killed in the last 24 hours, underscoring the fragility of the situation. This geopolitical development carries a moderate market impact, reflecting cautious optimism rather than a definitive resolution.

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Market Sentiment

Overall Sentiment

moderately positive

Sentiment Score

0.40

Key Decisions for Investors

  • Investors should monitor the ratification process and full implementation of the ceasefire agreement for sustained regional stability, particularly its implications for energy markets and geopolitical risk premiums, given the deal's inherent fragilities and political opposition.
  • Evaluate potential shifts in defense sector outlooks and commodity prices as de-escalation progresses, while acknowledging the ongoing humanitarian crisis may attract significant international aid and reconstruction efforts.
  • Maintain vigilance for any resurgence of conflict or political instability that could quickly reverse current moderately positive sentiment.