These 2 Finance Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks highlights its Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool as a method to identify stocks likely to beat earnings estimates, noting that combining a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better with a positive ESP has historically yielded positive surprises 70% of the time and 28.3% average annual returns over a decade. The analysis specifically identifies Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) with an ESP of +6.68% and Chubb (CB) with an ESP of +0.17% as two finance stocks poised to exceed analyst expectations in their upcoming earnings reports, based on their Most Accurate Estimates surpassing consensus figures.

Analysis

Zacks' Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) tool identifies companies likely to exceed quarterly earnings estimates by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, combining a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better with a positive Earnings ESP has resulted in a 70% positive surprise rate and generated an average annual return of 28.3% over a 10-year backtest. This methodology provides a data-driven approach to identifying potential earnings beats.

Two finance sector stocks, Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD) and Chubb (CB), currently exhibit positive Earnings ESPs, suggesting a high probability of beating their upcoming earnings forecasts. SKWD, a Zacks Rank #3 stock, has an ESP of +6.68% based on a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.91 against a $0.85 consensus for its October 29, 2025 report. Similarly, CB, also a Zacks Rank #3, shows an ESP of +0.17% with a Most Accurate Estimate of $6.34 versus a $6.33 consensus for its January 27, 2026 release.

The positive ESP figures for both SKWD and CB, coupled with their Zacks Rank #3 status, align with the historical data indicating a strong likelihood of positive earnings surprises. Such surprises can often lead to favorable stock price movements, particularly in the short-term post-announcement. This analytical framework offers institutional investors a systematic method to potentially capitalize on earnings season volatility.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should consider monitoring SKWD and CB closely ahead of their respective earnings reports, given their positive Earnings ESPs and Zacks Rank #3 status, which historically correlate with earnings beats.
• Evaluate the potential for short-term price appreciation in these finance stocks if they indeed report positive earnings surprises, aligning with the tool's historical efficacy.
• Utilize similar quantitative tools, like the Zacks Earnings ESP, to identify other potential earnings surprise candidates across various sectors to enhance portfolio alpha during earnings seasons.