Buy or Sell Deere Stock Ahead of Its Upcoming Earnings?

Deere (DE) is scheduled to release earnings on August 14, 2025, with analysts projecting a decline to $4.59 EPS on $10.33 billion revenue from the prior year's $6.29 EPS on $11.39 billion. Historically, DE's stock exhibits significant one-day volatility post-earnings, with a 50% chance of a median 3.1% decline and a 50% chance of a median 5.2% gain over the past five years. Despite this short-term unpredictability, the stock has doubled in value over the last five years, outperforming the S&P 500's 70% gain, suggesting it is better suited for long-term investors than short-term event-driven traders.

Analysis

Deere is approaching its August 14, 2025, earnings report with expectations of a significant year-over-year contraction, as analysts project earnings per share to fall to $4.59 from $6.29 and revenue to decline to $10.33 billion from $11.39 billion. This negative near-term outlook is coupled with extreme historical post-earnings volatility; over the last five years, the stock's one-day reaction has been negative 50% of the time with a median loss of 3.1%, and positive the other 50% with a median gain of 5.2%. This binary outcome underscores the speculative nature of short-term trading around this event. In stark contrast to its short-term unpredictability, Deere has demonstrated robust long-term performance, delivering a 100% return over the past five years and substantially outperforming the S&P 500's 70% gain. The company's fundamental scale is evidenced by its $138 billion market capitalization and $9.4 billion in operating profit on $44 billion of revenue over the last twelve months, suggesting that underlying profitability remains strong despite the anticipated quarterly slowdown.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long-term investors might consider any post-earnings weakness as a potential entry point, given the stock's historical tendency to outperform the S&P 500 over a multi-year horizon despite quarterly volatility.
• Event-driven traders should acknowledge the high degree of speculation, as historical data indicates a 50/50 chance of a positive or negative outcome, with a material median one-day move of +5.2% or -3.1%.
• Investors should pay close attention to management's forward guidance in the upcoming report, as the consensus forecast for a significant year-over-year decline in both revenue and EPS is already the market's baseline expectation.