Garmin to Report Q2 Earnings: What's in the Cards for the Stock?

Garmin is projected to report second-quarter 2025 earnings of $1.96 per share, a 24% year-over-year increase, on revenues of $1.74 billion, up 15.35%. This anticipated growth is driven by a widening product portfolio and strong demand across its Fitness, Outdoor, Marine (including the Lumishore acquisition), Aviation, and Auto OEM segments. However, despite a history of frequently surpassing consensus estimates, Zacks' model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for the upcoming quarter, noting a negative Earnings ESP.

Analysis

Garmin is approaching its second-quarter 2025 earnings announcement with high market expectations, underpinned by a Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenue of $1.74 billion, representing 15.35% year-over-year growth, and an EPS of $1.96, a 24% increase. This anticipated performance is broad-based, fueled by a consistent cadence of new product launches and strategic acquisitions across all five of its business segments. The Auto OEM and Marine divisions are projected to be the primary growth drivers, with consensus revenue estimates indicating YoY increases of 26% and 24.7%, respectively, the latter benefiting from the Lumishore acquisition. The Fitness and Aviation segments are also expected to post robust double-digit growth of 12.6% each, while the Outdoor segment shows more modest expansion at 6.6%. Despite this strong fundamental outlook and a history of positive earnings surprises, a notable counter-signal exists: Zacks' proprietary quantitative model does not predict an earnings beat, citing a negative Earnings ESP of -1.02% combined with a neutral Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). This creates a conflicting picture of strong operational momentum against a statistical indicator suggesting potential for a negative surprise relative to elevated expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the strong fundamental growth outlook, evidenced by double-digit consensus growth in four of five segments, against the quantitative model's caution of a potential earnings miss due to a negative Earnings ESP.
• Pay close attention to the reported results from the high-growth Auto OEM (expected +26%) and Marine (expected +24.7%) segments, as their performance is critical for justifying the overall growth narrative and will likely dictate the market's post-earnings reaction.
• Given that consensus estimates imply a high bar for performance, any failure to meet or substantially beat these figures could trigger a negative stock reaction, suggesting a cautious stance for new positions ahead of the announcement.