TD Cowen initiates coverage on Mirum Pharmaceuticals stock with Buy rating

TD Cowen initiated coverage on Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) with a Buy rating and a $95 price target, citing strong sales growth from its three approved rare liver disease products and promising pipeline optionality, projecting peak sales exceeding $1 billion. This follows Mirum's robust Q2 2025 results, which saw revenues jump 64% to $127.8 million, significantly beating estimates, and a raised 2025 guidance to $490-$510 million. The company's strong performance and outlook have led to multiple analyst upgrades and reiterated Buy/Market Outperform ratings, underscoring its growth trajectory in the rare disease market.

Analysis

Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) is exhibiting strong fundamental momentum, underscored by TD Cowen's recent initiation of coverage with a Buy rating and a $95.00 price target. This bullish outlook is anchored in the robust commercial performance of its three approved rare liver disease drugs, with TD Cowen and company management both forecasting peak sales to exceed $1 billion. This projection is substantiated by the company's second-quarter 2025 results, where total revenues surged 64% year-over-year to $127.8 million, significantly outperforming the $107.36 million consensus estimate. The earnings per share of -$0.12 also beat the forecasted -$0.33, indicating a faster-than-expected path toward profitability for the now cash-flow positive business. In a strong signal of confidence, Mirum raised its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to between $490 million and $510 million, representing 48% growth at the midpoint. The positive sentiment is broadly shared, with multiple analyst firms, including H.C. Wainwright and JMP Securities, raising their price targets in response to the company's performance, strong financial health indicated by a 3.13 current ratio, and pipeline optionality from candidates like volixibat and MRM-3379.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong Q2 earnings beat, raised full-year guidance, and broad positive analyst revisions, investors with existing positions may consider the fundamental thesis validated and potentially strengthening.
• The initiation of coverage by TD Cowen with a $95 price target suggests significant upside from the stock's 52-week high, warranting consideration for new investment, though the stock's 78% year-to-date appreciation merits a disciplined approach to entry points.
• Investors should monitor the continued sales adoption of the commercial portfolio to ensure it tracks towards the billion-dollar peak sales projection, as well as clinical trial milestones for pipeline assets which provide key long-term optionality.